Market Overview

November Auto Sales Likely Up Due to Black Friday Deals and Two More Selling Days

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SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,366,900 units in November, up 3.6 percent from a year ago. However, adjusting for two more selling days this year than in November 2015, sales may decline 4.7 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.66 million units for the month, down from an 18.25 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 3.8 percent to 1,189,914 adjusted for selling days.

"The early launch of Black Friday sales events is helping offset declines in fleet sales this month, as the retail sales environment remains strong for new car sales," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's chief industry analyst. "Incentives are also down slightly as automakers begin to address supply side imbalances with planned reductions in vehicle production."

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,475 per vehicle in November, up 13 percent from a year ago, and down 1.4 percent from October 2016.

"With only one month of sales to go until the end of the year, it looks like we will not break the annual record for auto sales set in 2015, but from a historical context, 2016 will go down as a blockbuster year in terms of new car sales and the overall health of the automotive industry," said Lyman.

General Motors continues to make gains in market share even as they continue to pull back on sales to the fleet channel.

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index is at 93.8 this month compared to 87.2 in October which further underscores the strength of a healthy US economy; the October unemployment rate came in at an eight year low of 4.9 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.13 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for November:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 87.1 percent retail sales and 12.9 percent fleet versus 86.3 percent retail and 13.7 percent fleet last November.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 2,857,365 down 6.1 percent from November 2015.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

               
Manufacturer    

November
2016 Forecast

    November 2015    

% Change vs.
November 2015

   

YoY %
Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW     36,000     36,521     -1.4%     -9.3%
Daimler     37,000     33,475     10.5%     1.7%
FCA     162,800     177,057     -8.1%     -15.4%
Ford     187,500     186,889     0.3%     -7.7%
GM     255,000     229,296     11.2%     2.3%
Honda     124,000     115,441     7.4%     -1.2%
Hyundai     62,200     60,007     3.7%     -4.6%
Kia     50,000     45,553     9.8%     1.0%
Nissan     105,000     107,083     -1.9%     -9.8%
Subaru     52,000     46,070     12.9%     3.8%
Toyota     197,000     189,517     3.9%     -4.4%
Volkswagen Group     47,100     45,284     4.0%     -4.3%
Industry     1,366,900     1,319,299     3.6%     -4.7%
 

Total Market Share

           
Manufacturer     November 2016 Forecast     November 2015     October 2016
BMW     2.6%     2.8%     2.0%
Daimler     2.7%     2.5%     2.3%
FCA     11.9%     13.4%     13.0%
Ford     13.7%     14.2%     13.7%
GM     18.7%     17.4%     18.8%
Honda     9.1%     8.8%     9.2%
Hyundai     4.6%     4.5%     4.5%
Kia     3.7%     3.5%     3.6%
Nissan     7.7%     8.1%     8.3%
Subaru     3.8%     3.5%     3.9%
Toyota     14.4%     14.4%     13.6%
Volkswagen Group     3.4%     3.4%     3.5%
 

Retail Unit Sales

               
Manufacturer    

November 2016
Forecast

    November 2015    

YoY %
Change

   

YoY %
Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW     34,633     34,354     0.8%     -7.3%
Daimler     34,819     31,175     11.7%     2.8%
FCA     137,800     139,767     -1.4%     -9.3%
Ford     145,950     145,399     0.4%     -7.7%
GM     210,000     189,533     10.8%     1.9%
Honda     122,800     114,183     7.5%     -1.1%
Hyundai     43,200     40,961     5.5%     -3.0%
Kia     43,000     39,950     7.6%     -1.0%
Nissan     90,500     95,686     -5.4%     -13.0%
Subaru     50,667     44,696     13.4%     4.3%
Toyota     183,083     176,226     3.9%     -4.4%
Volkswagen Group     44,743     41,799     7.0%     -1.5%
Industry     1,189,914     1,138,055     4.6%     -3.8%
 

Incentive Spending

               
Manufacturer    

Incentive per Unit
November 2016
Forecast

   

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
November 2015

   

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
October 2016

   

Total Spending
November 2016
Forecast

BMW     $6,279     25.3%     -3.0%     $225,591,077
Daimler     $4,660     -4.3%     -2.3%     $172,432,476
FCA     $4,154     17.9%     -0.7%     $672,051,475
Ford     $3,982     23.0%     -1.9%     $746,576,551
GM     $4,305     12.7%     -3.4%     $1,097,765,167
Honda     $1,936     6.0%     1.9%     $240,095,178
Hyundai     $2,468     13.0%     0.0%     $153,489,550
Kia     $3,164     5.8%     1.0%     $158,187,044
Nissan     $4,209     12.4%     -0.6%     $441,952,967
Subaru     $1,145     99.5%     4.4%     $59,543,508
Toyota     $2,420     2.7%     -0.4%     $476,674,493
Volkswagen Group     $3,751     6.2%     -2.7%     $175,369,595
Industry     $3,475     13.0%     -1.4%     $4,732,677,325
 

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 12,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

TrueCar, Inc.
pressinquiries@truecar.com
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com

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