Market Overview

TrueCar Finds September Auto Sales Expected to Dip Slightly but Remain on Pace for Record Year

Share:
SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,410,000 units in September, down by 2.3 percent from a year ago.

This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.4 million units for the month, down from an 18.0 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should decline 4.6 percent to 1,213,000 based on slower consumer demand.

"As we head into Q4, we're likely to see another record breaking year," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's chief industry analyst. "Recent sales declines may suggest otherwise, but automakers are still posting higher than average transaction prices with strong consumer demand for luxury and SUV vehicles."

Total volume for non-luxury, mass-market brands will likely be down by 2.6 percent versus last year, while sales of luxury models may decline by 0.2 percent.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,387 per vehicle in August, up 7.8 percent from a year ago, and up 0.5 percent from August 2016.

"With the biggest household income growth year-over-year in nearly a decade and full employment, we continue to observe positive signs among consumers to support robust automotive retail demand," said Oliver Strauss, TrueCar's chief economist.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index boasted a solid increase in August at 101.1, up from 96.7 in July and overall U.S. economic conditions remain healthy. August's unemployment rate was 4.9 percent, the lowest for that month in eight years, while gasoline prices remain favorable for consumers, falling to a national average of $2.21 per gallon on September 26 from $2.29 a year earlier.

Other key findings for September:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 86 percent retail sales and 14 percent fleet versus 88.1 percent retail and 11.9 percent fleet last September.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,228,833 down 1.9 percent from September 2015.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

 
     

% Change vs.

September

September 2015

Manufacturer

 

2016 Forecast

 

September 2015

 

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW   29,800   31,092   -4.2%
Daimler   31,000   32,087   -3.4%
FCA   184,000   195,976   -6.1%
Ford   200,000   221,269   -9.6%
GM   250,000   251,310   -0.5%
Honda   135,000   133,750   0.9%
Hyundai   62,000   64,015   -3.1%
Kia   49,000   49,820   -1.6%
Nissan   121,000   121,782   -0.6%
Subaru   57,250   53,070   7.9%
Toyota   195,000   194,399   0.3%
Volkswagen Group   46,000   48,092   -4.3%

Industry

 

1,410,000

 

1,442,460

 

-2.3%

Total Market Share

 
  September 2016    
Manufacturer   Forecast  

September 2015

 

August 2016

BMW   2.1%   2.2%   2.0%
Daimler   2.2%   2.2%   2.1%
FCA   13.0%   13.6%   13.1%
Ford   14.2%   15.3%   14.1%
GM   17.7%   17.4%   17.0%
Honda   9.6%   9.3%   9.9%
Hyundai   4.4%   4.4%   4.8%
Kia   3.5%   3.5%   3.6%
Nissan   8.6%   8.4%   8.2%
Subaru   4.1%   3.7%   4.0%
Toyota   13.8%   13.5%   14.1%
Volkswagen Group   3.3%   3.3%   3.6%

Retail Unit Sales

 
     

% Change vs.

September 2016

September 2015

Manufacturer

 

Forecast

 

September 2015

 

(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW   28,700   30,067   -4.5%
Daimler   29,400   30,307   -3.0%
FCA   139,000   147,492   -5.8%
Ford   158,000   175,245   -9.8%
GM   202,500   212,401   -4.7%
Honda   133,000   132,934   0.0%
Hyundai   47,000   51,586   -8.9%
Kia   42,000   45,252   -7.2%
Nissan   108,000   106,870   1.1%
Subaru   55,250   52,039   6.2%
Toyota   182,500   181,969   0.3%
Volkswagen Group   42,000   45,284   -7.3%

Industry

 

1,213,000

 

1,271,358

 

-4.6%

Incentive Spending

 
  Incentive per Unit   Incentive per Unit  

Incentive per

  Total Spending
September 2016 % Change vs.

Unit % Change

September 2016
Manufacturer   Forecast   September 2015  

vs. August 2016

  Forecast
BMW   $6,732   44.3%   3.9%   $200,149,798
Daimler   $4,342   -9.3%   -0.7%   $134,606,111
FCA   $4,302   22.8%   2.3%   $787,920,965
Ford   $4,092   11.4%   -1.5%   $818,334,932
GM   $4,101   2.1%   -2.3%   $1,025,188,553
Honda   $1,722   -16.7%   6.3%   $232,486,118
Hyundai   $2,431   1.2%   0.4%   $150,692,862
Kia   $2,763   -1.9%   -0.1%   $135,403,832
Nissan   $3,896   12.1%   1.9%   $471,458,000
Subaru   $1,014   68.5%   3.8%   $58,055,714
Toyota   $2,330   -0.1%   -3.4%   $454,259,672
Volkswagen Group   $3,910   23.4%   -0.7%   $178,798,144

Industry

 

$3,387

 

7.8%

 

0.5%

 

$4,760,645,566

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

TrueCar, Inc.
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com

View Comments and Join the Discussion!