Market Overview

TrueCar Projects October New Auto Sales Will Reach Highest Level in over a Decade

Share:
SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the modern car-buying service, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will hit 1,427,500 units in October, an 11.4 percent increase from a year ago and the most for the month since 2001.

The expected double-digit growth will push the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales to 17.9 million units compared to 16.6 million units a year ago. Continued consumer confidence coupled with attractive model year-end sales campaigns may boost retail sales 11.6 percent to 1,206,800 units.

"The industry remains hot with October marking the third month this year of double-digit growth," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's vice president of industry insights. "Interest rates are still low, which helps move vehicles off lots for consumers ready to buy. Automakers' promotions also sweetened the deal as the model-year close-outs carried over from September."

Subaru may be the month's sales leader with a 17.9 percent rise in volume, resulting in a best-ever October for the brand. Kia Motors America follows with a 15.2 percent increase in sales and should also post record October volume. FCA may rank third with a 14.9 percent sales gain due to strong Jeep brand sales likely to post a 31.3 percent gain. This would result in the 67th consecutive month of year-over-year sales gains for FCA. On a daily selling rate (DSR) basis, adjusting for one more day this month versus October 2014, sales should rise 7.4 percent.

Luxury cars and truck sales are expected to grow 9.9 percent compared to a year ago. Non-luxury volume will likely expand by 11.6 percent versus last year. Pickup truck, crossover and utility vehicles remain popular and continue to propel overall industry growth.

"We expect automakers to close the year with sales of 17.4 million new vehicles," said Lyman. "Total auto market revenue should reach a record $1.2 trillion, highlighting the strength of both the new and used markets and the rich mix of vehicles being sold."

TrueCar projects total revenue from U.S. sales of new and used vehicles will rise 7 percent this year to an all-time industry record of $1.2 trillion. U.S. consumers will likely buy a total of 55.8 million new and used cars and light trucks in 2015, up 4.2 percent over 53.5 million in 2014.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged $3,104 per vehicle in October, up 14.1 percent from a year ago and down 1.2 percent from September 2015.

"A drag in model year-end sales and promotions can be attributed to increasing levels of incentives," said Stacey Doyle, TrueCar's senior industry analyst. "Last month only 27 percent of sales comprised new model-year vehicles versus 32 percent September 2014, which means this year heavier incentives dollars historically spent in September overflowed into October."

Interest rates remain unchanged and overall U.S. economic conditions are still strong. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® improved by 1.7 points in September, hitting 103. Meanwhile, the unemployment report in September was 5.1 percent, the lowest for the month in eight years. Gas prices also remain favorable, falling to a national average of $2.20 per gallon on October 26 from $3.05 a year earlier.

Other key findings for October:

  • Expected registration mix of 84.5 percent retail sales and 15.5 percent fleet versus 84.4 percent retail and 15.6 percent fleet last October.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may exceed 3,023,686, down 2.3 percent compared to October 2014.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

       

October

2015 Forecast

     

% Change vs. October
2014

     

% Change vs.
October 2014
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW         37,600       4.5%       0.8%
Daimler         32,100       2.5%       -1.2%
FCA         197,200       14.9%       10.8%
Ford         211,000       12.3%       8.3%
GM         257,800       13.7%       9.6%
Honda         131,200       8.3%       4.4%
Hyundai         57,500       14.8%       10.7%
Kia         51,500       15.2%       11.1%
Nissan         113,000       9.6%       5.7%
Subaru         50,700       17.9%       13.7%
Toyota         199,100       10.3%       6.3%

Volkswagen Group

        46,600       -5.9%       -9.3%

Industry

       

1,427,500

     

11.4%

     

7.4%

                   

Total Market Share

 

Manufacturer

       

October 2015 Forecast

     

October 2014

     

September 2015

BMW         2.6%       2.8%       2.2%
Daimler         2.2%       2.4%       2.2%
FCA         13.8%       13.4%       13.4%
Ford         14.8%       14.7%       15.3%
GM         18.1%       17.7%       17.4%
Honda         9.2%       9.5%       9.3%
Hyundai         4.0%       3.9%       4.4%
Kia         3.6%       3.5%       3.5%
Nissan         7.9%       8.0%       8.4%
Subaru         3.6%       3.4%       3.7%
Toyota         13.9%       14.1%       13.5%
Volkswagen Group         3.3%       3.9%       3.3%
                   

Retail Unit Sales

 

Manufacturer

       

October 2015 Forecast

     

% Change vs. October
2014

     

% Change vs.
October 2014
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW         36,600       4.1%       0.3%
Daimler         30,700       2.3%       -1.4%
FCA         146,200       11.9%       7.9%
Ford         157,000       15.8%       11.6%
GM         200,400       14.4%       10.4%
Honda         129,800       7.9%       4.1%
Hyundai         46,900       17.0%       12.8%
Kia         44,200       11.7%       7.7%
Nissan         99,000       10.9%       6.9%
Subaru         48,600       16.3%       12.2%
Toyota         186,000       12.5%       8.4%
Volkswagen Group         43,454       0.0%       -3.6%

Industry

       

1,206,800

     

11.6%

     

7.6%

                         

Incentive Spending

 
Manufacturer        

Incentive per
Unit October
2015 Forecast

     

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
October 2014

     

Incentive per Unit
% Change vs.
September 2015

     

Total Spending
October 2015
Forecast

BMW         $4,647       -11.1%       -0.4%       $174,256,147
Daimler         $4,597       29.1%       -4.0%       $147,558,647
FCA         $3,546       14.5%       1.2%       $694,233,108
Ford         $3,659       14.3%       -0.3%       $772,143,707
GM         $3,842       16.4%       -4.3%       $990,442,734
Honda         $2,093       13.4%       1.3%       $274,647,758
Hyundai         $2,408       74.6%       0.3%       $138,476,808
Kia         $2,826       13.5%       0.3%       $145,555,821
Nissan         $3,409       3.8%       -1.9%       $385,183,210
Subaru         $591       -0.6%       -1.8%       $29,972,370
Toyota         $2,146       13.9%       -7.9%       $427,362,214
Volkswagen Group         $3,363       29.4%       6.1%       $155,690,622

Industry

       

$3,104

     

14.1%

     

-1.2%

     

$4,418,994,251

(Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company's operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the modern car-buying service, gives consumers transparent insight into what others paid and access to guaranteed savings off MSRP from TrueCar Certified Dealers. TrueCar's network of more than 10,000 trusted Certified Dealers is committed to providing upfront pricing information and a hassle-free buying experience. TrueCar powers car-buying programs for some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including AARP, American Express, AAA, Sam's Club and USAA. Not all program features are available in all states. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information about TrueCar and industry analysis please visit www.truecar.com and insights.true.com. Follow us on Facebook or Twitter.

TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com

TrueCar, Inc.
Carly Schaffner
424-258-8897
CSchaffner@truecar.com
pressinquiries@truecar.com

View Comments and Join the Discussion!
 

Partner Center

Loading...