National Retail Federation Forecasts Holiday Sales to Increase 3.7%
The National Retail Federation announced today it expects sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) to increase a solid 3.7 percent to $630.5 billion — significantly higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent. Holiday sales in 2015 are expected to represent approximately 19 percent of the retail industry's annual sales of $3.2 trillion. Additionally, NRF is forecasting online sales to increase between 6 and 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.
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"With several months of solid retail sales behind us, we're heading into the all-important holiday season fully expecting to see healthy growth," said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "However, while economic indicators have improved in several areas, Americans remain somewhat torn between their desire and their ability to spend; the fact remains consumers still have the weight of the economy on their minds, further explaining the complex retail spending environment we are seeing right now. We expect families to spend prudently and deliberately, though still less constrained than what we saw even two years ago."
"Potential disruptions from yet another government shutdown in mid-December and a slower pace of job creation and income growth are just a few key factors that will impact holiday shoppers' spending this year," continued Shay. "Price, value and even timing will all play a role in how, when, where and why people shop over the holiday season. Retailers will be competitive not only on price, but on digital initiatives, store hours, product offerings and much more."
Holiday sales in 2014 increased 4.1 percent over the previous year.
"Similar to last year in the sense we're coming off a rather disappointing first half, this holiday season brings to light several crosscurrents that still exist for American households," said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. "While confidence data is encouraging, slower job growth in 2015, deflationary retail prices and the mix of consumer spending somewhat shifting toward big ticket items and services, as well as the wild card in our government spending debates, will all contribute to the slower growth rate of sales expected for the holiday season."
"All said, there's no reason to doubt that we will see solid retail sales growth in the final two months of the year," continued Kleinhenz.
NRF's holiday sales forecast is based on an economic model using several indicators including, consumer credit, disposable personal income and previous monthly retail sales releases. It also includes the non-store category (direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.) For historic sales information visit NRF's Holiday Headquarters and the Retail Insight Center.
NRF Forecasts Seasonal Employment to Grow Between 700,000 and 750,000
According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 700,000 and 750,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, in line with last year's 714,000 new holiday positions.
PRESS AND ANALYSTS ONLY: Join NRF for a media briefing today at 10:30 a.m. with NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay and NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz, Ph.D. On the call, Shay and Kleinhenz will discuss the rationale and metrics behind NRF's holiday forecast along with economic expectations for the remainder of 2015. Register for the briefing by emailing email@example.com.
* NRF defines "holiday sales" as retail industry sales in the months of November and December. Retail industry sales include most traditional retail categories including non-store, auto parts and accessories stores, discounters, department stores, grocery stores, and specialty stores, and exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.
NRF is the world's largest retail trade association, representing discount and department stores, home goods and specialty stores, Main Street merchants, grocers, wholesalers, chain restaurants and Internet retailers from the United States and more than 45 countries. Retail is the nation's largest private sector employer, supporting one in four U.S. jobs – 42 million working Americans. Contributing $2.6 trillion to annual GDP, retail is a daily barometer for the nation's economy. NRF's This is Retail campaign highlights the industry's opportunities for life-long careers, how retailers strengthen communities, and the critical role that retail plays in driving innovation. NRF.com
Visit the Retail Insight Center for historical holiday sales and sample charts