Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/2nbnx2/egypt) has announced the addition of the "Egypt Agribusiness Report Q1 2013" report to their offering.
Stable import needs will not be enough to prevent inflation from ticking higher in the medium term. Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, and high global prices will feed into domestic prices, even if minimally. The lifting of the three-year-old ban on rice exports will very likely lead to the country returning to its status of a preferred exporter to neighbouring countries at the expense of other major exporters such as the US and Russia. The sugar and cotton industries are still under pressure because of falling global prices, but the author expects a recovery in the coming months as companies make some price adjustments. The livestock and dairy industries are likely to recover soon from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, which had a milder impact than initially expected.
- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 11.3% to 9.52mn tonnes.
- Beef consumption growth to 2016/17: 13.7% to 588,200 tonnes.
- Rice production growth to 2016/17: 12.6% to 4.78mn tonnes.
- Real GDP growth: 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 (up from 2.2% y-o-y in 2012).
- Consumer inflation: average 9.5% y-o-y in 2013 (up from 9.5% y-o-y in 2012).
Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) has indicated that it has received half of its imports for the 2012/13 season thanks to an increase in domestic production and high stocks. GASC has tendered for 2.3mn tonnes of wheat since the start of the season and recently announced it would import a total of 4.8mn tonnes for the full year. In 2011/12 the government accounted for 50% of all wheat imports, with private traders accounting for the rest. This will come as the country's production deficit remains stable at 8.9mn tonnes in 2012/13 and as 2011/12 ending stocks reach a high of 6.7mn tonnes.
As the author expects, the impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has not significantly impacted production growth in the country in 2012. The author expects production to have fallen by 11.0% y-o-y to 280,000 tonnes in 2011/12, largely owing to high feed prices. The fall in production compares with three years of consecutive reductions of 10% in the country's beef production in 2006, 2007 and 2008 after the country was affected by another large FMD outbreak resulting in the loss of more than 1mn cattle. The FMDSDAT2 strain discovered in February 2012 only infected about 94,401 animals by August, and resulted in a mortality rate of 28% and about EGP200mn in losses.
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