Owing to Generic and Biosimilar Erosion of Key Agents, the Colorectal Cancer Drug Market Will Decline from $8.3 Billion in 2011 to $7.8 Billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan
Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that, through 2021, growth in the market for colorectal cancer (CRC) treatments will decline in the face of generic competition for a key cytotoxic agent, oxaliplatin (Sanofi's Eloxatin/Eloxatine, Yakult Honsha's Elplat), as well as the entry of biosimilar competitors for key targeted biological agents. The CRC market totaled $8.3 billion in 2011 and is expected to decrease to $7.8 billion in 2021 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan.
The Pharmacor Colorectal Cancer advisory service also finds that Genentech/Roche/Chugai's Avastin will be minimally challenged as the sales leader in the CRC market over the next ten years. Avastin will dominate the CRC market with total sales hovering around $2.5 billion, comprising nearly one-third of total CRC treatment sales in 2021, despite erosion from biosimilar versions and launches of new angiogenesis inhibitors Zaltrap (Sanofi/Regeneron) and ramucirumab (ImClone Systems/Eli Lilly's IMC-1121B).
“Zaltrap and ramucirumab, which will enter the second-line metastatic CRC treatment setting over the next decade, will face strong competition from Avastin,” said Decision Resources Analyst Gemma McConnell, Ph.D. “With data from the TML/ML18147 study demonstrating the benefit of Avastin treatment beyond disease progression, Zaltrap and ramucirumab will fail to garner high patient share, collectively earning less than $300 million in 2021.”
The findings also reveal that major market sales of the EGFR inhibitor drug class will decline from 2011 to 2021 as a result of biosimilar competition and, importantly, as increased use of angiogenesis inhibitors in the second-line setting push EGFR-targeted therapies into the smaller later-line treatment settings. In 2021, Erbitux (Bristol-Myers Squibb/Eli Lilly/Merck Serono) and Vectibix (Amgen/Takeda) are forecast to garner collective sales of approximately $1.3 billion.
Decision Resources expects Bayer HealthCare's Stivarga, the first small molecule multikinase inhibitor to gain FDA approval in CRC, to address a significant unmet need in the third- and fourth-line treatment settings and to increase treatment rates in these settings over the forecast period. However, the small patient populations will significantly constrain sales and in 2021, major-market sales of Stivarga will reach less than $200 million.
The Pharmacor Patient Flow Model for Colorectal Cancer, which contains detailed methodology that includes modeling of recurrent cases of CRC, finds that continuing improvements in screening will modify both the risk and stage distribution of diagnosed CRC over the coming decade. Despite the risk being strongly associated with age, the effect of population aging will be limited by reduced risk of invasive disease due to screening, and the growth in the number of stage I cases will be double that of stage IV at 1.6 and 0.7 percent per year, respectively, up to 2021.
Forecast improvements in the observed survival in the metastatic setting will increase the number of people living with metastatic CRC over the next 20 years, despite the number developing metastatic disease per year remaining relatively stable due to the combined effects of screening and forecast improvements in the management of metastatic recurrence. The number of people living with unresectable CRC will increase at an annualized rate of 2.3 percent per year over the coming 20 years, compared to 1.5 per cent year growth in the number of those in clinical remission.
Decision Resources' Pharmacor advisory service offers clients in the biopharmaceutical industry the most up-to-date information available on commercially significant disease topics.
About Pharmacor Patient Flow Models
By utilizing our proprietary Pharmacor epidemiological data, Decision Resources now provides Pharmacor Patient Flow Models covering bladder cancer, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, head and neck cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, gastric cancer, malignant melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, pancreatic cancer, prostate cancer, renal cell carcinoma, sarcoma and thyroid cancer. Using Pharmacor Patient Flow Models, users can build their own oncology patient flow model and/or validate the logic behind their own internal models. This interactive tool allows users to track changing disease and population dynamics over a 20-year annualized forecast, improve their modeling accuracy with clearly depicted methods and transparent assumptions and identify untapped market potential within lines of therapy. Pharmacor Patient Flow Models is available as an add-on product to the Pharmacor advisory service.
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Christopher Comfort, 781-993-2597