Market Overview

Research and Markets: Country Forecast Iran Updater


Research and Markets ( has announced the addition of the "Country Forecast Iran Updater" report to their offering.

A parliamentary election took place in March 2012, empowering conservatives close to the supreme leader at the expense of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose presidency ends next year. Iran's relations with the West will remain tense following Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and continued enrichment of uranium, which the US and its allies suspect is meant for the production of nuclear weapons.

The US and EU have all increased their sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Negotiations over its nuclear programme will continue intermittently, but these are unlikely to result in a grand bargain, as neither the US nor Iran will be prepared to offer concessions unilaterally. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects this pattern of alternating escalations in tensions and returns to negotiation to continue. The economy will shrink on average in 2013-14 as Iran is restricted in its ability to export crude and the rial weakens. The current and fiscal accounts will also struggle as the country feels the impact of increased international sanctions.

We have made no substantial changes to our political outlook.

At the beginning of October the value of the rial on Iran's unofficial currency markets collapsed to around IR35,000:US$1, nearly three times weaker than the official IR12,260:US$1 rate. We now expect the central bank to devalue the rial again before end-2012: we forecast the official rate at end-2012 to be around 20% weaker than at end-2011.

Key Topics Covered:

Country Forecast Iran Updater

Iran at a glance: 2013-17


Key changes from last month

Political outlook

Economic policy outlook

Economic forecast

Country forecast overview: Highlights

Country forecast overview: Key indicators

Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings

Country forecast overview: Iran's business environment at a glance

Policy towards private enterprise and competition

Policy towards foreign investment

Foreign trade and exchange controls



The labour market


Fact sheet

Data summary: Global outlook

Data sources and definitions

Global data

Domestic data


For more information visit

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager.
U.S. Fax: 646-607-1907
Fax (outside U.S.): +353-1-481-1716
Sector: Business, Banking and Financial Services

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