Research and Markets: Country Forecast Iran Updater
Research and Markets (http://www.researchandmarkets.com/research/9k76g7/country_forecast) has announced the addition of the "Country Forecast Iran Updater" report to their offering.
A parliamentary election took place in March 2012, empowering conservatives close to the supreme leader at the expense of the president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose presidency ends next year. Iran's relations with the West will remain tense following Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz and continued enrichment of uranium, which the US and its allies suspect is meant for the production of nuclear weapons.
The US and EU have all increased their sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Negotiations over its nuclear programme will continue intermittently, but these are unlikely to result in a grand bargain, as neither the US nor Iran will be prepared to offer concessions unilaterally. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects this pattern of alternating escalations in tensions and returns to negotiation to continue. The economy will shrink on average in 2013-14 as Iran is restricted in its ability to export crude and the rial weakens. The current and fiscal accounts will also struggle as the country feels the impact of increased international sanctions.
We have made no substantial changes to our political outlook.
At the beginning of October the value of the rial on Iran's unofficial currency markets collapsed to around IR35,000:US$1, nearly three times weaker than the official IR12,260:US$1 rate. We now expect the central bank to devalue the rial again before end-2012: we forecast the official rate at end-2012 to be around 20% weaker than at end-2011.
Key Topics Covered:
Country Forecast Iran Updater
Iran at a glance: 2013-17
Key changes from last month
Economic policy outlook
Country forecast overview: Highlights
Country forecast overview: Key indicators
Country forecast overview: Business environment rankings
Country forecast overview: Iran's business environment at a glance
Policy towards private enterprise and competition
Policy towards foreign investment
Foreign trade and exchange controls
The labour market
Data summary: Global outlook
Data sources and definitions
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