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GOP Campaign Wheels Falling Off

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- Socio-Political Commentary -

June 16, 2011 (FinancialWire) (By "The Political Prophet"(R)) -- Editor's note: Socio-political events and developments have a direct impact on the market. In the interest of providing shareholders and investors with a broad spectrum of information in regard to such potentially impactful occurrences, FinancialWire(tm) contributor, "The Political Prophet"(R), offers advanced insight with potential ramifications for virtually the entire market spectrum, perhaps best represented by bellwether-type ETFs such as the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLV), the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE: MOO), the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), the iPath Goldman Sachs Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: OIL), the iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSE: IYR), the PowerShares Global Progressive Transportation Portfolio ETF (NASDAQ: PTRP), the Claymore U.S. Capital Markets Bond ETF (NYSE: UBD), the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLK), the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE: XLI) and the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE: UUP), to name just a few. To that end, here's the latest entry from FinancialWire contributor, "The Political Prophet"(R):

When discussing last night's Republican Presidential debate in New Hampshire and, for that matter, when considering the field of Republican candidates right now please note that perspective is important. If you are a journalist, nothing ever happens at a pace that pleases you. You want the field narrowed RIGHT NOW. You want a clear front runner RIGHT NOW. You often have to do stories about things you do not fully understand so the closer events are to completion; the less likely you are to look like an idiot on air or in print. If you are in a campaign as a candidate, party leader, donor or professional, stuff is always happening way too fast because politics is often a "catch up" business in terms of workload and timetable.

On the other hand, the political process itself has scheduling, event and outcome requirements which are independent of and superior to the above needs regardless of who you are and what interests you hold dear. However, if your perspective is that of a voter, it is your consent being sought and your vote that is the object of this entire enterprise. Sit back and enjoy the ride but remember that everyone including the media is pushing an agenda.

Our brief thoughts about the New Hampshire GOP debate last night are: The single most impressive individual on the stage was moderator John King who, for the most part, was masterful. Among the seven candidates present no one imploded or was destroyed. No one soared far above the crowd. That particular debate will not make a difference in the outcome of the nomination process. If a report on debate preparation/evaluation would be helpful to you, please let us know. We prioritize report preparation according to your responses.

We predict: The wheels will continue to fall off many of the GOP campaign wagons. The Gingrich disasters, inexplicable decisions made in the Romney camp, Huntsman's apparent choice not to tap the family fortune for his campaign, delusions in the Santorum and Johnson camps and opening with a surprising series of gaffs by old pro Ed Rollins, are all tarnishing the concept of shrewd decision making by professional politicians.

Businessman Herman Cain, who has no political experience, is surviving with only one major misstep thus far. For those who have tried to teach politics to button down business guys, Cain's relative success at this point is a little surprising. Somehow the "I've made a bunch of money so I must be smart and you should be listening to me" crowd has a hard time trying to adapt to the humility of political organizing and campaigning.

It is very difficult to assess inner intent with anyone, much less a candidate, but...

We Predict: Donald Trump is not the only "pretender" in the 2012 election cycle and even more may enter the game just for the publicity and ego gratification. Here is how we have seen the thought process delude candidates: Phase one- Get a bundle of free publicity by going through the early motions of a campaign and donors will pay my expenses so I am not out of pocket for anything. I can increase the rates for my legal/consulting/speaking fees and my book sales will go through the roof. Phase two-(regardless of reality) I can really win this thing. Phase three- My country/state/county/city really needs me so I will press on regardless. Phase four- I can't believe I ran dead last.

We Predict: House Democratic Leader, Nancy Pelosi, DNC Chair, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and DCCC honchos Israel and Schwartz will refuse to use their "trump card" with Congressman Anthony Weiner (D-NY). If the top brass for the Democratic Party really wants to force Weiner's hand for resignation, they would publicly threaten to give national financial and campaign support to a credible primary opponent against him. The idea is certainly being discussed but Democratic Leaders lack the fortitude to face down the radical left element that is supporting Weiner so aggressively. That same fear of retaliation from the dominant block in Democratic politics will also make it difficult for Democrats in New York to redistrict Weiner's Congressional seat into oblivion.

We Predict: The alternative scenario is for the Obama Administration to arrange a high paying job for Weiner to step into after leaving the House. As we predicted well in advance of the dirty deed, the "job swap" ploy was Obama's tactic to put Rahm Emanuel in the mayor's office in Chicago and Bill Daley (Mayor Daley's brother) into the White House as his Chief of Staff.

The complicating factor this time is that greed appears to be an important element in Weiner's persona; it takes second place to his ego and his demand for the media spotlight. It will not be easy to find a position that pays well with an employer who is willing to put someone as demonstrably sleazy as Weiner in a spokesman role.

The exception might be one of the radical political groups like "Move-On" but, like most on the radical left, their current leaders have egos and spotlight demands of their own. It is probable (but not yet a prediction) that some of the super-rich lefties will form a new group, put Weiner out front as an "attack dog" spokesman and let him self destruct while trying to destroy as many "enemies" (Republicans) as possible. Sadly, there are enough sleazy types in the media today to provide a forum for just such an antic.

In spite of Weiner's "leave of absence to seek treatment" we have a strong suspicion that he is nothing more than a slimy guy that got caught. He acts like a low-life who has no respect for women, reporters or the truth. His presence in the national dialogue may help Republicans but he degrades everyone until he is gone. If the Democratic Leadership can't send him away immediately and for good, the GOP majority in the House should. Enough already.

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Resource note: Predictions prepared 14, 2011; Of special Interest to political leaders, candidates, staff, donors, campaign professionals, journalists and investors; Original June 14 article posted by Investrend Syndications (at http://www.investrendsyndications.net/content/prophet/2011/06/14.php).

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*Reporters tell us what happened yesterday. Pollsters tell us what is happening today. POLITICAL PROPHET(R) tells us what is mostlikely to happen in the future. Our elite team of political strategists with Presidential campaign experience provides analytical predictions that tend to be more precise than offerings from those who have never been "in the arena". To assure objectivity, team members are not currently consulting with individual candidates but our Predictions often provide valuable strategy insights for party leaders, candidates, staff, contributors, campaign professionals, journalists and investors.

The Political Prophet(R) and all derivatives of The Political Prophet(R) in any form are registered trademarks of The Political Prophet(R) and are subject to proprietary trademark, intellectual property and copyright Laws. Copyright (C), The Political Prophet(R), All rights reserved.

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