Why American Pharoah May Not Win The Triple Crown

On Saturday, American Pharoah will attempt to win horse racing's Triple Crown at the 147th Belmont Stakes. The feat that has only ever been accomplished 11 times.

Three of those 11 winners took place in a five-year span: 1) Secretariat (1973), who still holds the Stakes record at a blazing 2:24 minutes, 2) Seattle Slew (1977), and 3) Affirmed (1978), who defeated Alydar in three epic races.

Overall, there have been 17 horses that have won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but came up short in the grueling 1½-mile Belmont Stakes (the longest of the three races). Since 1978, 14 horses have won the first two and failed to win in the Belmont. In three of those failed attempts, Bob Baffert, the trainer of American Pharoah, suffered the disappointment.

Recent History

The most recent example of this happened in 2014, when California Chrome wilted down the stretch and was overtaken by a fresher Tonalist. It should be noted the winner did not run in either of the first two legs and was coming off an impressive win in the Peter Pan (which is also run at Belmont Park) nearly a month before the Belmont Stakes.

There are two reasons why we may not have another Triple Crown winner on Saturday, or possibly ever. As a result of the increase in inbreeding over the last 40 years, which has accelerated recently, thoroughbred horses' genetic deficiencies are inherited, instead of being reduced or eliminated. In other words, under the current breeding scenario, horses may not be being produced that can withstand the physical demands needed to win the Triple Crown.

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After winning the challenging 1¼-mile Kentucky Derby and sprinting to victory in the shorter Preakness, California Chrome did not appear to be the same horse that ran in the Belmont. The wear-and-tear of the first two legs weakened his physical status, evidenced by his loss of weight. This zapped the strength from him that was needed to rally in the stretch to win the Belmont.

The second reason goes hand-in-hand with the first one. A well-rested horse, such as Tonalist last year, that did not run in either of the first two legs was in much better condition to withstand the test of the Belmont. Not necessarily a better overall horse than California Chrome on any given day, but he was on that day, coming off a month's rest.

History Repeats Itself

The same situation is in place this year. Nine of the last Belmont winners have skipped either the Derby or the Preakness. In this year's race, American Pharoah will have to contend with several horses that did not race in either the Derby or Preakness (if at all), such as this year's winner of the Peter Pan, Madefromlucky.

Another strong challenge may come from Materiality, who suffered from an extremely poor start in the Derby, but was able to recover and finish sixth. More importantly, he skipped the Preakness and will be well-rested to thwart Pharoah's bid.

Of course, it would be great for the "Sport of Kings" to have a Triple Crown winner and further renew interest. However, three grueling races in five weeks just may be too demanding a task for any horse. Most thoroughbred horses get three to four weeks in between races. A few weeks in-between the three legs of the Triple Crown, coupled with fresh entrants, may prevent this amazing feat to be accomplished again.

Plus, a victory by American Pharaoh would go a long way to further refute the whining of California Chrome's owner, Steve Colburn, who openly whined after his horse's defeat to Tonalist in last year's race.

Howard and Ira Warshaw contributed to this article.

Joel Elconin is the co-host of Benzinga's #PreMarket Prep, a daily trading idea radio show.