Nintendo's Stock Fell After The Release Of 'Super Mario Run': This May Explain Why

On Thursday, the stock's American-listed ADR fell more than 3 percent to close the day at $29.35, while the stock's Tokyo-listed equity (TYO: 7974) fell 4 percent during Friday's Asian trading session.

Many investors had high hopes for the game, which is expected to bring in the large amounts of cash the "Pokémon GO" game failed to do.

Gadfly's Tim Culpan suggested the Mario game will be a big winner in the sense that Nintendo actually developed the game itself. This contrasts "Pokémon GO," which was developed by Niantic and for which Nintendo received such few royalties the company has had to acknowledge the game's smashing success will have a limited impact on its financial earnings. Culpan explained, "[W]e're once again seeing a disconnect between what brokers view as a hit for the Japanese game maker, and the more realistic calculations being made by the long-short funds that have had as much fun playing Nintendo's stock this year as they've had playing its smartphone games."

Strength Is Weakness For Nintendo

As such, Nintendo will likely see a large spike in revenue from early adopters who have been anxiously waiting a long period of time to buy the new game. These early adapters will gladly fork over $10 to play the game while less-committed laggards will follow in smaller numbers and may or may not buy the game after testing out the first three stages for free.

On the other hand, Culpan argued that Nintendo hopes to collect a one-time upfront payment from gamers and isn't expecting to collect money from the in-game purchase.

Granted, the Mario game was released just to iOS users on Thursday, and 85 percent of the global smartphone market don't use a Mac device. Culpan countered by suggesting that Android users already spend a lot less on apps and games compared to iOS users.

Bottom line, Culpan concluded that while "Super Mario Run" is likely setting up to be another huge success the future of Nintendo can't be built on one-hit wonders.