NBA Best Bets: Nuggets vs. Mavericks Picks for March 17

The Denver Nuggets (47-20) visit the Dallas Mavericks (38-29) after winning five road games in a row. The Nuggets are favored by 3.5 points in the matchup, which starts at 3:30 PM ET on Sunday, March 17, 2024.

Why don't you check out the best bets available (based on our computer predictions) for Sunday's game, before you make a wager on this matchup?

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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Game Info

• When: Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 3:30 PM ET
• Where: American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas
• TV: ABC
• Live Stream: Watch this game on Fubo

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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Best Bets

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Nikola Jokic Over 27.5 PTS

• Nikola Jokic's 26.0 points per game average is 1.5 less than Sunday's over/under.
• Jokic is 27-for-63 at hitting the over on his points prop total this season.
• The Nuggets are at the 15th spot in the NBA's scoring rankings (114.8 points per game), while the Mavericks concede the 22nd-lowest amount of points (117.7 per game).
• Denver is 24-3 when putting up more points than 117.7.

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Luka Doncic Over 31.5 PTS

• Luka Doncic is averaging 34.3 points during the 2023-24 season, 2.8 more than Sunday's prop total.
• Doncic is 31-for-58 at going over his points prop this season.
• Dallas' squad is currently the sixth-ranked scoring team in the NBA (119 points per game), while Denver is seventh in points conceded (110.3 per game).
• When scoring more points than 110.3, Dallas is 36-13.

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Pick ATS: Mavericks (+ 3.5)

• Denver's record against the spread is 32-35-0.
• Dallas' record against the spread is 37-30-0.
• The Nuggets' ATS record as 3.5-point favorites or more is 24-27.
• The Mavericks are 8-8 as 3.5-point underdogs or more.

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Pick OU: Over (227.5)

• The Nuggets and their opponents have gone over 227.5 combined points in 27 of 67 games this season.
• The Mavericks have played 46 games this season that have gone over 227.5 combined points scored.
• Denver has an average point total of 225.1 in its outings this year, 2.4 fewer points than this game's over/under.
• Dallas' average game total this season has been 236.7, 9.2 more points than this matchup's over/under.
• The Nuggets are the 15th-highest scoring team in the league this year. The Mavericks have scored the fifth-most points.
• The Nuggets are the NBA's seventh-ranked scoring defense while the Mavericks are the 21st-ranked.

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Moneyline Pick: Nuggets (-160)

• The Nuggets have entered the game as favorites 56 times this season and won 42, or 75%, of those games.
• The Mavericks have come away with nine wins in the 27 contests they have been listed as the underdogs in this season.
• Denver has a record of 38-10, a 79.2% win rate, when it's favored by -160 or more by sportsbooks this season.
• This season, Dallas has come away with a win four times in 15 chances when named as an underdog of at least +135 or worse on the moneyline.
• The implied probability of a win from the Nuggets, based on the moneyline, is 61.5%.

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