Thursday's Market Minute: Bull Market Dies Aged Eleven

The S&P 500 bull market died on Thursday after an 11-year run that returned 400% and tripled earnings. It was the longest run in history and preceded in a day by its brother, The Dow. The bull had many brushes with death throughout its long history, from debt crises to oil crises and interest-rate hikes, coming within arm’s length of the end but never fully giving in until catching a bad case of coronavirus on February 19. Whether it was the fundamental complications of the illness on the economy or panic surrounding it, doctors will debate in the months to come.

But it moved fast once it hit, taking just 16 trading days after its peak to finally give in, the fastest descent in history. Coronavirus is most harmful to the elderly, and indeed this bull was starting to show its age. A handful of preventative rate cuts during a surprisingly hot economy sent sentiment and optimism soaring and the S&P 500’s forward valuations to the highest of the bull market yet. Some will say it was untenable and collapsed under its own weight, others will say it was on the verge of a last push until the black swan arrived.

Doctors at the Federal Reserve and the White House tried to revive the bull in its final hours but it was too late. A collapse in oil prices turned pain to misery and a rush of selling ahead of an expected economic crisis sent it to its demise. It died surrounded by friends and family, including bitcoin, the Russell 2000, OPEC+ and the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.

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