Market Overview

EUR/USD Forecast: Upside Potential Remains Limited

EUR/USD Forecast: Upside Potential Remains Limited

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1025

  • EU’s and German’s GDP expanded modestly in the third quarter of the year.
  • Dollar in trouble amid uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade relationship.
  • EUR/USD bounces from 1.0990 price zone, upside potential remains limited.

The EUR/USD pair has remained under selling pressure this Thursday, although unable to move far away from the 1.1000 level. The market’s mood took a turn to the worst mid-US afternoon, with US Treasury yields plummeting to fresh weekly lows and US indexes falling. The dollar eased against most major rivals, although there was no clear catalyst behind the slide. Market players, however, are concerned about progress in US-China trade talks, and Trump impeachment’s process.

Data failed to impress, as, despite better-than-anticipated, growth figures in the Union were far from signalling the slowdown is over. German Q3 Gross Domestic Product resulted at 0.1%, better than the flat growth predicted by analysts. The EU preliminary Q3 GDP met the market’s expectations by printing 0.2%, and in both cases, the yearly readings were slightly better than forecasted. The US just released the October Producer Price Index, which came in better than anticipated, up by 0.4% MoM and by 1.1% YoY. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 8  increased to 225K far above the expected 215K.  

The EU will release October final CPI figures this Friday, seen at 0.7% YoY, while the US will publish October Retail Sales, foreseen bouncing from the previous -0.3%. The country will later release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for the same month.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading at around 1.1020, and despite being in the green for the day, it has posted a lower low a third consecutive day. Nevertheless, the pair is also holding above the 61.8% retracement of the October rally at around 1.0990, the immediate support. In the 4-hour chart, the pair has pared its advance around a bearish 20 SMA, which maintains its downward slope below the larger ones, while technical indicators have recovered within negative levels, lacking enough momentum to confirm additional gains ahead. The 50% retracement of the mentioned rally comes at 1.1030, providing immediate resistance.

Image Sourced from Pixabay


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