E-Commerce Automotive Market Is The Next Big Thing And The US Auto Parts Network Is The Player To Pay Attention On - AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN)

The global e-commerce automotive market is forecasted to grow with the highest CAGR from 2020 to 2029, according to a latest industry study by Market.us. And one of the market's key players, U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. Common Stock PRTS U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. is expected to report earnings for its third quarter that ended on September 30th on November 1 after the market closes.

U.S. Auto Parts Network Inc that was established in 1995, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an online provider of aftermarket auto parts and accessories primarily in the United States and the Philippines. It offers a range of exterior and interior automotive parts and accessories to individual consumers through its large network of online marketplaces.

News That Influenced the Quarter

One of the largest online providers of aftermarket automotive parts and accessories has announced an appointment of Jim Barnes to its Board of Directors. Barnes is currently a CEO enVista, LLC, a supply chain and unified commerce consulting firm that he co-founded in 2002. Mr Barnes feels that the company is well equipped and positioned to grow its business by providing U.S. consumers with affordable auto parts. He seems as the perfect fit for the company to go forward and fuel that growth as the company has been facing a drop in its revenues.

For this quarter's earnings, analysts expect the company to deliver a year-over-year decline. When we look at the last four quarters, they only managed to beat analyst expectations once, with the remainder being surprise-free. But even that's better news than missing estimates. And many stocks can still lose ground even after exceeding estimates due to other qualitative factors influencing the investor's sentiment. So let's try to figure out what those catalysts might be.

Prior Results

Through the first quarter, the company reported that 91% of its revenue comes from e-commerce and online marketplace with the remaining being offline or wholesale. When it comes to product portfolio, 57% of products are from the collision parts line, 31% of engine parts, and 11% is represented by performance and accessories. As for the latest annual filing, net sales were $289.5M with adjusted EBITDA $10.4M.

Previous Quarter Earnings

The specialty auto parts retailer reported ($0.04) earnings per share for the quarter, successfully meeting the Thomson Reuters' estimate. U.S. Auto Parts Network did have a negative return on equity of 23.48% with a negative net margin of 3.21%. But the company had revenue of $73.69 million during the quarter with analyst estimates of $74.66 million.

Analyst Expectations

The down-trending stock of U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. has declined 15.11% since October 25, 2018. It has underperformed S&P500 by 15.11%. But, it crossed above its 200-day moving average during trading on October 14th as the stock's 200-day moving average of $1.21 was exceeded by shares trading as high as $1.55.

On average, analysts expect U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc. to report $-0.03 EPS on November, 1 with $0 EPS for the current as well as the following fiscal year. Some anticipate $0.04 EPS change or 400.00% from last quarter's $0.01 EPS. After having $-0.04 EPS previously, U.S. Auto Parts Network, Inc.'s analysts see -25.00% EPS growth. The stock decreased 1.24% or $0.02 during the last trading session, reaching $1.59.

There's the "surprise" potential which underlines the whole industry.

Back on August 17th, after its prior quarter earnings were released, Zacks Investment Research upgraded their shares from a "hold" to a "buy" rating, by setting a $1.25 price target. So together with the unexpected growth of the e-commerce auto-parts industry, this industry peer is able to pull out a few surprises. One week ago, Lamp News reported that institutional sentiment increased to 0.86 in Q2 2019. Its ratio improved by 0.65 as it was 0.21 in the first quarter of 2019 fiscal year.

Competitors

One of its main competitors, Autozone Inc AZO rose 2.77% on October 24 post its earnings report. What's more impressive that its up-trending stock has risen 60.79% since October 27, 2018. But focusing more on e-commerce and speaking of the giant itself, Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN was just heavily beaten by Microsoft in getting the US$10 bn cloud deal so its throne is surely shaken up.

A giant of another kind, the Chinese Alibaba Group BABA is now a strong buy as its earnings report is on the horizon. But, the US-China trade dispute continues to loom over the stock. Although its fate might not be entirely tied to this scenario but we have to wait for October 31 to see if they can manage to beat estimates like they did last quarter. Yet, if shares fall short of estimates, there could be a significant material decline that would be a clear indicator that the trade war is influencing the business. We still have to wait to see the impact of the weakening economy and intensifying trade disputes, but one thing is clear: U.S. Auto Parts Network operates in a highly competitive environment.

Outlook

Even Amazon made losses several years after its listing, but all those who bought and held the shares from the company's beginnings ended up making a fortune. And this is the reason why investors are often drawn to ‘seemingly' unprofitable companies. The main concern for U.S. Auto Parts Network is the possible cash burn scenario which would bring the company to a distressful position. So the question that analysts want answered is can this company afford to keep investing in its growth? But, on the bright side, the company was debt free in June this year with its balance sheet showing US$890k in cash.

Its balance of cash reserves and cash burns did alter significantly through the years but the company did have a positive cash flow last year. Unfortunately, its revenues are down sliding this year as they declined 5.1%. The good news is that it would be easy for the company to fund a year of growth by either taking out a loan or issuing new shares. So, if they can work on their offerings to enhance their sales, there are many reassuring factors to support its way forward- hopefully to growth.

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