Market Overview

Earnings Expectations for the Week of April 9 (AA, GOOG, JPM)


First quarter earnings begin to trickle in as Alcoa kicks off the new earnings season this week. It will be followed in short order by results from Google, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and others. Investors looking for signs indicating how first-quarter earnings will shake out may be pleased with the anticipated earnings growth from Google and Wells Fargo, but not so much by the expected earnings decline from JP Morgan and the net loss from Alcoa. That assumes that the analysts' forecasts are correct, of course. Here is a look at what analysts are looking for in this week's most prominent reports.

The consensus forecast for leading global producer of aluminum Alcoa (NYSE: AA) calls for a net loss of $0.04 per share and revenues of $5.8 billion. That compares to earnings of $0.28 per share and sales of $5.9 billion in the first quarter of last year. That EPS forecast is the same as it was 60 days ago. Alcoa has not offered a positive surprise in the past three quarters, but before that beat estimates for five quarters in a row. The company is scheduled to announce its results Tuesday afternoon.

See also: Alcoa to Curtail Refining Capacity

In its Thursday report, earnings from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) are estimated to be $9.64 per share for the first quarter. That would be a year-over-year increase of 16.2%. And note that 60 days ago the consensus EPS estimate was $9.57. Revenues are expected to total $8.1 billion, which would be 24.4% higher. And both EPS and sales also are expected to be sequentially and year-over-year higher in the current quarter. But note that Google fell short of analysts' estimates in two of the past six quarters, including a miss of almost a dollar per share in the fourth quarter.

See also: Google 2012 Update from CEO Larry Page

First-quarter 2012 earnings from JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), one of the largest banks in the U.S., are estimated to total $1.15 per share on revenues of $24.6 billion in Friday's report. In the same quarter of last year, the New York-based company posted $1.28 per share and $25.8 billion. But sixty days ago, the consensus forecast called for EPS of just $1.10. Analysts also anticipate a year-over-year slump of both EPS and revenue in the current quarter. JP Morgan has not fallen short of consensus EPS estimates in more than eight quarters.

See also: These Financial Stocks Are on Fire

Also on Friday, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) is expected to announce that its first-quarter 2012 earnings came to $0.72 per share on revenues of $20.4 billion. That would be up from $0.67 per share and $20.3 billion in the same period of last year. That EPS estimate is unchanged from 60 days ago, and the consensus estimate for the current quarter has EPS sequentially and year-over-year higher. Note that analysts' estimates have come within a penny or two of EPS results in the past five quarters.

Supermarket operator SUPERVALU's (NYSE: SVU) fourth-quarter fiscal 2012 earnings are forecast to have fallen nine cents per share from a year ago to $0.35. Full-year EPS are expected to have fallen 11.5% to $1.23. Both EPS estimates are two cents lower than 90 days ago. And analysts anticipate revenues for the quarter will have fallen 4.0% to $8.3 billion, and for the full year they will be down 4.8% to $35.7 billion. The company is on tap to share results Tuesday morning.

Analysts expect nuts and bolts maker Fastenal's (NASDAQ: FAST) first-quarter earnings in Thursday's report to be 22.9% higher than a year ago to $0.35 per share. The company has not fallen short of consensus EPS estimates in the past eight quarters. Revenues are expected to be up 19.8% from a year ago to $767.6 million. Also, both EPS and sales for the current quarter are expected to be higher sequentially as well as year over year.

Here is a peek at what analysts expect from some other companies reporting this week:

  • ADTRAN (NASDAQ: ADTN): Q1 EPS down 61.5% to $0.20 and sales down 18.9% to $134.3 million
  • Bank of Ozarks (NASDAQ: OZRK): Q1 EPS up 15.7% to $0.51 and sales up 24.7% to $60.2 million
  • Greenbrier Companies (NYSE: GBX): Q2 EPS, from a year-ago loss, to $0.47 and sales up 55.3% to $444.5 million
  • Layne Christensen (NASDAQ: LAYN): a Q4 loss of $3.77 per share and sales down 3.5% to $262.2 million
  • LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK): a Q4 loss of $0.72 per share and sales down 50.3% to $432.4 million
  • Titan Machinery (NASDAQ: TITN): Q4 EPS down 8.8% to $0.52 but sales up 17.7% to $433.3 million

See also: ETFs for Q1 Earnings Reports

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