Harley Davidson Earnings Preview

Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson

reports fourth-quarter results before the bell Tuesday morning and analysts are expecting a profit of 23 cents a share on revenue of $1.01 billion. EPS estimates currently range from 19 cents to 29 cents while sales estimates range from $952 million to $1.06 billion. The company said it expected to ship 228,000-235,000 motorcycles in 2011 and 45,500-52,500 motorcycles in the fourth quarter. Hit hard by the recession, Harley-Davidson recently laid off workers in its home state of Wisconsin and is expected to take a fourth-quarter charge of $480-$495 million related to those cost-saving efforts. Improved demand for Harleys was seen in November and December, meaning analysts and investors will likely be eager to hear about the company's shipment outlook for the current quarter and 2012 overall. Traders should note that when Harley-Davidson beats estimates, the stock has a tendency to soar in the pre-market while the opposite is true on the downside. For example, the stock plunged almost 7% before the market opened after its third-quarter earnings report, but jumped more than 8% following its second-quarter report that saw the company top estimates. The shares are up almost 8% year-to-date and trading less than $3 below the average price target of $44.43.