Right now, the U.S. Supreme Court is staring down a case that could unravel some of the biggest pieces of Trump's economic legacy—specifically, the recent tariffs imposed during his presidency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
If you remember, those tariffs touched nearly every corner of the market: tech, autos, retail, energy, and beyond. And while they were pitched as a way to protect American industries, they also piled costs onto businesses that rely on global supply chains—especially import-heavy companies.
Now, after more than six weeks, the Justices could be gearing up to strike some (or all) of those tariffs down. And that decision (if it goes the way many analysts think it might) could send a ripple through the entire market.
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Some stocks will surge.
Others? Not so lucky.
So, I've gone back through my watchlists, pulled historical performance, and run fresh scans on all the tickers likely to move when the federal ruling drops.
Let's talk about the winners first.
Winners
If the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's tariffs, or even clips the wings of IEEPA's authority, it's going to be a huge relief for companies that were footing the bill on imports.
And that list is long.
Think about big-name retailers like NIKE Inc. (NYSE:NKE), The Gap Inc. (NYSE:GAP), Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W), and RH (NYSE:RH). These companies live and die by their global sourcing models. When tariffs went up, their margins got squeezed. But if those costs suddenly drop? That's a direct boost to earnings—and the market won't miss it.
Same story in tech. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) all rely heavily on components and manufacturing based in China and other overseas markets. If supply chain costs come down, that's more profit hitting the bottom line. And more often than not, it shows up in the stock price.
Even names like Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD), Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT), and YETI Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:YETI) stand to gain. Most folks don't think of these as tariff-sensitive, but these retailers move huge volumes of imported goods. When duties drop, their margins get room to breathe—and that can mean fatter spreads ahead.
And don't sleep on electric vehicles and battery plays like Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ:RIVN), Fluence Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:FLNC), and Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB). Many of these companies rely on foreign-sourced rare earths and components that were slapped with extra fees. If those tariffs get rolled back, Wall Street won't waste any time—it'll reprice the whole sector.
It's not just battery makers, either. Any business leaning on imports stands to benefit. Cheaper access means wider margins, stronger earnings, and often, a fresh wave of investor interest.
Losers
Of course, not everyone wins when tariffs go away.
Companies that had been shielded from global competition (those that benefited most from a more closed trade environment) could find themselves in a tougher spot.
So, domestic steelmakers like Nucor Corporation (NYSE:NUE) and Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:AA)? They were propped up by tariffs that made foreign metal more expensive. If that protection disappears, they're going to feel the pressure fast. And I'll be watching their patterns closely for signs of breakdowns.
The same goes for automakers like Ford Motor Co. (NYSE:F), General Motors Co. (NYSE:GM), and PACCAR Inc. (NASDAQ:PCAR). These companies enjoyed a temporary moat when tariffs hit imported autos and parts. But if those costs are wiped away, expect foreign competitors to start pricing aggressively, and that could mean trouble for domestic margins.
Then there's defense and aerospace. Names like Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:LMT), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NYSE:NOC), and Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:HII) saw outsized support under the protectionist narrative. Less political tailwinds could mean a cooldown in momentum.
Even some of the more surprising sectors, like healthcare and auction-based platforms, could see indirect pressure. If the broader market shifts away from safe havens and toward high-growth importers, defensive names like UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:UNH), Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM), and Copart Inc. (NASDAQ:CPRT) could lag the pack.
How Traders Can Benefit
Look, I'm not betting the farm on one court ruling (or anything for that matter). But if you know where to look, a decision like this can hand you a playbook before the rest of the market catches on.
That's why I'm tracking long call setups and Long-Term Equity AnticiPation Securities (LEAPS) on the import-heavy winners, while keeping a close eye on bearish reversals in some of the tariff-protected names that could be in for a rough patch.
And if the ruling hits while the market's already leaning bullish?
You could see a quick rotation into retail, tech, and consumer names that have been quietly underperforming.
So, while the headlines are still talking politics, I'll be over here—talking patterns.
Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.
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