Trump Vs. Harris: First Poll After Biden's Exit Shows Majority Approve Of Decision, But Here's How It Might Affect Ex-President's Chances

Although expected, when President Joe Biden announced Sunday his intention to quit the 2024 race, it created ripples. A snap poll conducted shortly after the president’s announcement showed a majority of Americans approved of the decision.

Biden’s Decision: 71% percent of the Americans surveyed said they either strongly approved or somewhat approved of Biden’s withdrawal, YouGov’s survey showed. The survey was conducted on Sunday after Biden’s announcement and 2,048 adults were surveyed for the purpose. A total of 16% said they either disapproved or somewhat disapproved, and 12% said they weren’t sure.

Party-wise breakup of the responses showed that the percentage of Americans who approved of (strongly/somewhat) the decision was:

70% Democrats
68% Independents
77% Republicans

Biden’s Replacement: Vice President Kamala Harris was picked as Biden’s replacement by 37% of the respondents, 35% wanted someone else and 27% said they weren’t sure. She snagged the support of a majority of her own party members, with 60% siding with her. Those rooting for someone else or who weren’t sure accounted for 21% and 19% of Americans who identified themselves as Democrats.

Among independents, Harris garnered the support of 30% of the respondents, while 36% sought someone else. A more modest 24% of Republicans picked Harris as a potential Biden replacement but 50% wanted someone else.

Trump’s Chances: Trump’s chances are bolstered by Biden’s decision to quit. 36% of Americans said Biden’s decision to step aside as the Democratic nominee makes Trump more likely to win, while 23% said it makes Trump less likely to win. 18% said the decision would have no impact and 23% weren’t sure.

More Democrats (37%) see the development as more negative for Trump, while only 23% and 8%, respectively of the independents and Republicans think likewise. The proportion of the Democrats, independents and Republicans who see Biden’s decision as positive for Trump is 22%, 34%, and 53%, respectively.

Trump Vs. Harris: In a hypothetical matchup, 34% of registered voters said they think Harris would win in an election against Trump, while 49% think Trump would win. Despite the big lead for Trump, Harris’ performance was better than the Biden vs Trump tally, according to a July 13-16 Economist/YouGov poll. Biden received only 29% support in the mid-July poll compared to 50% support Trump got.

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