Apple iPhone Likely To Miss Consensus By 16M As China's Macros Weigh, Analysts Say

UBS believes Apple Inc's AAPL iPhone 14 generation may miss expectations by 16 million units this year, as China's Covid Zero policy takes a toll on its essential Zhengzhou plant and entry-level models face weak demand.
UBS analysts slashed their total iPhone 14 production forecast to 76 million from 92 million units for the second half of 2022, a 20% fall from 2021, Bloomberg reported.
They attributed the lower expectations to the manufacturing disruption faced by Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd HNHPF, and softening demand for lower-end iPhone 14 models.
"The speed with which Apple and Hon Hai can resolve the challenges at Zhengzhou is key to 2022's fourth quarter and 2023's first quarter volume," the analysts wrote.
Foxconn's Zhengzhou campus closed-loop operation hampered efforts to compensate for lost assembly time.
The Foxconn facility at Zhengzhou produces most iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max devices.
Turmoil at the Zhengzhou plant will likely lead to a production shortfall of 6 million iPhone Pro units.
Apple could also ask assemblers like Pegatron Corp PGTRF and Luxshare Precision Industry Co, which typically focus on lower-end iPhone models, to produce more premium models to meet holiday season demand, UBS said.
If such a shift happens, Foxconn's iPhone assembly share could fall from 70%-to-75% this year to 65%-to-70% in 2023, the analysts added.
Price Action: AAPL shares traded lower by 0.11% at $148.15 premarket on the last check Friday.

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