Your Uber Is About To Get Pricier: Demand Is Soaring And Analysts Are Getting Excited

Analysts see an upside in Uber Technologies, Inc UBER, citing growing demand and presence. Needham analyst Bernie McTernan reiterated a Buy and $52 price target on Uber and maintained a Hold for Lyft, Inc LYFT.

In his 13th Mobility Tracker, wait times and pricing bounced higher over the two weeks before Labor Day, up by 1,200bps and 300bps, respectively, compared to the prior 2-week period. 

McTernan suspects this bounce is demand-driven. He also saw continued improvement in OpenTable and TSA data supporting demand growth combined with potential late-summer seasonality impacting supply. 

As a result, he raised his estimates to the high end of guidance in 3Q22E for UBER and LYFT on bookings/revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Mizuho analyst James Lee reiterated a Buy on Uber and a $46 price target. He believes Street EBITDA expectations appear conservative. 

Lee expects Uber to maximize margins while holding market share in 2H22, which is achievable due to rational competition and increased driver supply.

The consensus incremental EBITDA margins appear conservative for Mobility and Delivery. He estimates an EBITDA upside of 7% for Mobility and 14% for Delivery in 2H22. On a consolidated basis, his analysis shows an upside of 15% in 2H22 and 10% for FY22.

Long-term, LYFT’s FY24 EBITDA guidance and consensus margin of 17% indicate an upside for Uber’s 11% implied EBITDA margin, given its large U.S. base and international presence, Lee wrote. 

Price Action: UBER shares traded lower by 0.65% at $30.23 on the last check Thursday.

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