KeyBanc Remains Upbeat On Auto-Based Companies Like Microchip, Indie; Shares View On Semiconductor Stocks

  • KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said nine companies were under coverage (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMDCirrus Logic, Inc CRUSLattice Semiconductor Corporation LSCCMonolithic Power Systems, Inc MPWRNXP Semiconductors N.V. NXPION Semiconductor Corporation ONQorvo, Inc QRVOSkyworks Solutions, Inc SWKSSynaptics Inc SYNA) and reported positive results but mixed guidance.
  • The broad-based analog (LSCC, MPWR, NXPI, ON) reported robust results/guidance, and China smartphone-exposed companies (QRVO, SWKS) posted weaker results. 
  • While the China COVID lockdowns are disrupting both supply and demand, particularly in consumer-facing end-markets, such as P.C./mobile, the impacts appear lesser than we initially had feared following Texas Instruments Inc's TXN report. 
  • Notably, NXPI indicated that 50% of its customers in China are now fully operational, another 30% are recovering, and 20% remain shut down, which suggests the supply chain in China is healing nicely. 
  • By end-markets, automotive, industrial & IoT, and data center demand remains strong; with softening consumer P.C., industry shipments in 2022 are likely to decline HSD% vs. flat to down LSD% previously, as enterprise strength continues to offset consumer/Chromebook weakness. 
  • Mobile demand, especially in China, is being negatively impacted by the recent COVID lockdowns, with QRVO signaling a multi-quarter inventory correction in handsets and tempering 5G industry smartphone shipments in 2022 from 725 million (+32%) to 662 million (+20%). 
  • Conversely, the iPhone and high-end smartphone demand remain resilient. 
  • Vinh saw that broad-based and auto-exposed companies Microchip Technology Inc MCHP and Indie Semiconductor, Inc INDI are likely to post solid results and guidance this week.
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