KeyBanc Remains Upbeat On Auto-Based Companies Like Microchip, Indie; Shares View On Semiconductor Stocks

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said nine companies were under coverage (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ: AMD), Cirrus Logic, Inc (NASDAQ:CRUS), Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ:LSCC), Monolithic Power Systems, Inc (NASDAQ: MPWR), NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NASDAQ:NXPI), ON Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: ON), Qorvo, Inc (NASDAQ: QRVO), Skyworks Solutions, Inc (NASDAQ: SWKS), Synaptics Inc (NASDAQ:SYNA)) and reported positive results but mixed guidance.
The broad-based analog (LSCC, MPWR, NXPI, ON) reported robust results/guidance, and China smartphone-exposed companies (QRVO, SWKS) posted weaker results.
While the China COVID lockdowns are disrupting both supply and demand, particularly in consumer-facing end-markets, such as P.C./mobile, the impacts appear lesser than we initially had feared following Texas Instruments Inc's (NASDAQ:TXN) report.
Notably, NXPI indicated that 50% of its customers in China are now fully operational, another 30% are recovering, and 20% remain shut down, which suggests the supply chain in China is healing nicely.
By end-markets, automotive, industrial & IoT, and data center demand remains strong; with softening consumer P.C., industry shipments in 2022 are likely to decline HSD% vs. flat to down LSD% previously, as enterprise strength continues to offset consumer/Chromebook weakness.
Mobile demand, especially in China, is being negatively impacted by the recent COVID lockdowns, with QRVO signaling a multi-quarter inventory correction in handsets and tempering 5G industry smartphone shipments in 2022 from 725 million (+32%) to 662 million (+20%).
Conversely, the iPhone and high-end smartphone demand remain resilient.
Vinh saw that broad-based and auto-exposed companies Microchip Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MCHP) and Indie Semiconductor, Inc (NASDAQ:INDI) are likely to post solid results and guidance this week.