Dunkin Brands Group Inc's DNKN recovery from its COVID-19 lows may have occurred a lot sooner than many expected.
What Happened: Dunkin' Donuts saw total monthly visits decline by 42.6% year-over-year in May, a figure that has since improved sequentially, according to data compiled by Placer.ai.
Monthly visits improved to negative 27.1% in June, negative 15.7% in July and negative 11.3% in August, according to the retail data firm.
Trends started to turn positive in September, as year-over-year daily visits rose 1% on Saturday, Sept. 5, Placer.ai said.
The following day, visits were higher by 11% year-over-year, while Labor Day Monday visits were up 7%.
Why It's Important: The key metric that matters more than year-over-year visits is the time that a visit takes place, according to Placer.ai.
While July and August visit trends were close to normalized compared to 2019, the start of September and the "return to work/school exaggerated the difference again."
What's Next: Normalized morning visits are key for Dunkin' to say it has fully recovered.
But if the coffee chain shows it can sustain late morning and early afternoon visits, the eventual return of loyal morning customers would represent a "very powerful boost," Placer.ai said.
Photo courtesy of Dunkin.'
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