EUR/USD Forecast: Is Gaining Bearish Traction, Not Yet Confirming A Steeper Decline Ahead

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0807

• US annual inflation seen at 0.8% in April, well below the previous 1.5%.
• Economic reopenings and the return to “normal,” remains as the main market mover.
• EUR/USD is gaining bearish traction, not yet confirming a steeper decline ahead.

The EUR/USD pair eased within range, nearing the 1.0800 level during US trading hours and holding nearby heading into the Asian session. The American currency is up against all of its major rivals, particularly strong against commodity-linked ones, as US indexes struggle to post some intraday gains. The market’s mood was mostly optimistic at the beginning of the day, focused on economic reopenings, although the enthusiasm faded throughout the day. The macroeconomic calendar was quite scarce, with no relevant data released in the US or the EU.

On Tuesday, the Union won’t publish macroeconomic data, but the US will publish April inflation data. The annual CPI is seen up by 0.8% well below the previous 1.5%. The core figure is foreseen at 1.7% from 2.1% in the previous month. Meanwhile, market players will continue to focus on economic reopenings and the health developments in this new “normal.”

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has posted a lower low and a lower high daily basis, offering a neutral-to-bearish stance in the short-term. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has spent much of the last session struggling around a mild-bearish 20 SMA, while below a flat 100 SMA. The Momentum indicator remains flat around its 100 line, while the RSI heads marginally lower at around 40, in line with the increased bearish potential.

Support levels:  1.0790 1.0755 1.0710

Resistance levels: 1.0865 1.0900 1.0940

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