AUD/USD Forecast: Trading Around 0.6400, Technically Bullish Although Overbought

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6392

• Gold prices surged to their highest since November 2012 amid risk-off.
• Australian NAB’s Business Confidence Index for March, foreseen at -2 from -4 previously.
• AUD/USD trading around 0.6400, technically bullish although overbought.

Commodity-linked currencies were the best performers this Monday, with the AUD/USD extending its advance beyond the 0.6400 figure. The Canadian dollar also appreciated, despite weaker oil prices. The main catalyst for these advances seems to be demand for gold, as the bright metal soared to its highest since November 2012, above $1,720.00 a troy ounce. When rushing into the Aussie, speculative interest ignored the sour tone of equities. The American dollar, in the meantime, remained out of the market’s favour.

Australian markets will resume activity after closing on Thursday, which may result in some choppy price action early Asia. The country will release the NAB’s Business Confidence Index for March, foreseen at -2 from -4 previously, and the NAB’s Business Conditions Index, seen improving in the same month to 1 from 0. Also, China will publish its March Trade Balance, and the market foresees a surplus of $ 18B amid a sharp decline in imports.

AUD/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair has advanced for a sixth consecutive day, hovering around 0.6400. The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has continued to advance above all of its moving averages, with the 20 SMA advancing above the larger ones. The Momentum indicator holds within positive levels but lacks directional strength, while the RSI maintains a mild-bullish stance at around 76.

Support levels: 0.6365 0.6300 0.6295

Resistance levels: 0.6440 0.6475 0.6500

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