EUR/USD Forecast: At Fresh 2020 Low, No Signs Of An Interim Bottom

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.0676

• The ECB announced a €750 billion easing package to counter the effects of the current crisis.
• Macroeconomic data began reflecting the dismal economic situation.
• EUR/USD at fresh 2020 low, no signs of an interim bottom.

The EUR/USD pair has fallen to fresh 2020 lows sub-1.0700, as demand for the American currency remained strong this Thursday, although panic receded, at least temporarily. The pair peaked at 1.0981 at the beginning of the day, as the ECB announced an easing package worth €750 billion so-called "pandemic emergency purchase program" (PEPP) to buy private and public sector securities,  but the pair was unable to hold on to gains, finally losing the former yearly low at 1.0777 and accelerating its slump. The dollar is ending Thursday unevenly across the board, as European indexes closed in the green, while US indexes also posted modest gains.

In the data front, Germany released an unexpected preliminary estimate of the March IFO Business Climate, which fell to 87.7 from 96.  The US published Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended March 13, which jumped to 281K much worse than the 220K expected. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey plummeted to -12.7 from 36.7 previously.  Friday’s calendar will be lighter, as Germany will release the February Producer Price Index, Europe will unveil January’s Current Account, while the US will publish February Existing Home Sales.

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has bounced modestly from 1.0656, its lowest in almost two years, heading into the Asian session trading a handful of pips above this last. The pair is approaching to be oversold in the daily chart, although technical indicators continue to head firmly south. In the shorter-term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk remains skewed to the downside, as technical indicators have barely bounced from their lows, the RSI still within oversold levels. The 20 SMA has broken below the larger ones, heading south roughly 250 pips above the current level.

Support levels: 1.0660 1.0620 1.0575

Resistance levels: 1.0725 1.0770 1.0810

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