EUR/USD Forecast: Holding Within Familiar Levels

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1126

• Trump’s impeachment adding to persistent Brexit and trade deal uncertainty.
• US data missed the market’s expectations, preventing the dollar from appreciating.
• EUR/USD holding within familiar levels, but at risk of diving.

The EUR/USD pair has extended its weekly decline by a few pips to 1.1106, ending the day little changed a handful of pips above the 1.1100 threshold. Financial markets were mixed this Thursday, amid political precariousness in multiple fronts.

The US and China are yet to report on their trade deal, UK PM Johnson is ready to take the UK out of the EU next year, while US President Trump has been impeached by the House of Representatives. The American dollar seesawed between gains and losses against most rivals, paring its advance as Wall Street rallied to fresh all-time highs.

 No major data was out this Thursday, although that from the US was disappointing. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey was down to 0.3 in December below the expected 8 and the previous 10.4, while weekly unemployment claims came in at 234K for the week ended December 13, worse than anticipated. Existing Home Sales fell by 1.7% in November, much worse than the 0.2% decline expected. This Friday, the US will release the final version of Q3 GDP and November PCE inflation, seen stable at 1.6% YoY.

EUR/USD Short-Term Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is neutral-to-bearish in the short-term, hovering around the 38.2% retracement of its December rally. An intraday advance met sellers ahead of the next Fibonacci resistance at 1.1150. In the 4-hour chart, a directionless 20 SMA provided intraday resistance, while technical indicators spent the day within negative levels, lacking clear directional momentum. The upside seems well-limited by sellers around 1.1180, while renewed selling pressure below 1.1100 could anticipate a steeper decline toward 1.1065.

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