Insured Losses From Dorian Could Hit $5B, With Billions More In Uninsured Losses

Insured losses from Hurricane Dorian’s direct hit on The Bahamas could approach $5 billion, according to various estimates made as damage assessments began late last week. The total loss, which includes large amounts of uninsured property, could be twice as much. 

The catastrophe risk modeling firm Karen Clark & Company estimates the storm caused $7 billion in total damage as it plowed into the island chain last week before heading toward the U.S. coast and on to Canada, Insurance Journal reported.

KCC hasn’t estimated precisely what percentage of the total losses might be insured, but said it is likely to be in the 40% to 70% range, using past storms as a guide.

The estimate includes commercial and residential losses, but not auto or major infrastructure damage.

Much of Damage Likely Uninsured

Analysts at UBS Group AG UBS substantially lowered their estimate for total storm damages, as Dorian ended up missing most of the U.S. Southeastern coast.

UBS now expects insured damage in the Bahamas to be between $500 million and $1 billion, but with $5 to $10 billion in uninsured losses.

UBS had earlier estimated Dorian could cause $25 billion in insured losses based on an early forecast path that had the storm causing more damage in the United States.

Another risk modeling firm, AIR Worldwide, estimated insured losses from the storm in The Bahamas and the Virgin Islands at between $1.5 billion and $3 billion.

The storm has caused property damage in North Carolina and elsewhere on the U.S. mainland, though much less than initially feared. Those damages are still being calculated.

A board member of German reinsurer Munich Re told Reuters on Sunday that losses of “several billions” of dollars are expected to lead to higher reinsurance rates.

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Hurricane Dorian viewed from the International Space Station. Photo via Wikimedia.