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Market Overview

EUR/USD: A Recovery We Can Believe In?

EUR/USD: A Recovery We Can Believe In?
  • EUR/USD is trading above 1.1200, buoyed by improving GDP, inflation.
  • Markets continue digesting the data as the month draws to an end.
  • The technical picture is significantly better for the pair.

EUR/USD extended its gains and tops 1.1200. The initial driver was USD weakness. The Core PCE Price Index came out at 1.6% YoY in March, below expectations and adding to the case for a more dovish stance by the Fed on Wednesday.

The second driver is upbeat European data. Euro-zone GDP beat with 0.4% QoQ and 1.2% YoY, in Q1 2019 above 0.3% projected and 0.2% last time on the quarterly figures. Earlier, French GDP came out at 0.3% QoQ and 1.1%, as expected. Spain's GDP beat with 0.7% QoQ and 2.4% YoY, above expectations. 

In addition, reading from Germany's states point to higher inflation in the continent's largest economy. The preliminary all-German figure is due at 12:00 GMT.

Additional figures are due in the US. The Employment Cost Index, Pending Home Sales, and especially Consumer Confidence are all eyed.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis


By breaking above 1.1200, the pair also cross the 50 Simple Moving Average on the four-hour chart, a bullish sign. Moreover, Momentum turned positive and the Relative Strength Index is edging higher. The technical picture certainly improved.

The next resistance line is at 1.1230 which supported the pair earlier this month and capped a recovery attempt last week. The 1.1255 level held EUR/USD down in mid-April and it is followed by 1.1280 that provided support when it traded on higher ground.

Support awaits at 1.1176 which was the previous 2019 trough and a separator of range. 1.1140 was the initial low before 1.1110 which was recorded on Friday and is the lowest in 22 months.

Image sourced from Pixabay


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Posted-In: EUR/USD European UnionNews Eurozone Forex Global Markets General

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