Market Overview

Trump's Flunk Continues As Support For Clinton Surges

Share:

National polls have been showing an increasing support for Hillary Clinton. According to a model by FiveThirtyEight based on hundreds of surveys, Clinton boasts an 8-point lead over Trump.

The State Level

Until this week, state-level polls did not abound, but were already showing an advantage for Clinton. Last week:

  • Suffolk University learned that Clinton has a 6-point advantage in Florida, one of the most important swing states.
  • Franklin & Marshall found that Trump had an 11-points disadvantage in the highly relevant Pennsylvania.
  • WBUR discovered a 15-point lead for Clinton in New Hampshire.
  • WDIV-TV noticed that the Democrat had a 9-point advantage over the Republican.
  • The Atlanta Journal gave Clinton a 4-point lead in Red state Georgia.
  • A Detroit News survey had Clinton 4 points ahead of Trump in Michigan.

Related Link: Trump's No Good, Very Bad Week In Numbers

This week, new surveys out of the Quinnipiac University and Marist College showed Clinton has been gaining traction in some swing states, averaging a 4-point rise in support across Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa and Florida – taking into account third party candidates.

Sill, Clinton needs to win over one more state to ensure the number of electors she necessitates to be elected as President. And, while Ohio and Florida seem pretty hard wins, North Caroline looks like a more feasible option. So far, models have shown it is likely for her to win the popular vote and then lose the Electoral College. Moreover, many models are still expecting a Trump rebound.

Clinton’s QuickSand(ers)

It's interesting to note that a lot of Bernie Sanders supporters are still not backing Clinton – although they would if faced with a dichotomist choice. In fact, many of them said they would prefer Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party’s Jill Stein.

Interestingly, both candidates are polling ahead of Trump among people under 30 years old, a McClatchy poll revealed. Also thought-provoking is the fact that Johnson saw Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) searches for his name skyrocket during the presidential run, even doubling the number of searches for Sen. Rand Paul, when interest for him as a candidate spiked earlier this year.

Related Link: What Presidential Candidates Think About Marijuana Policy And Legalization

“Before we get to all the data, let’s be clear about what we’re discussing: The Sanders holdouts aren’t that large a group. If they were forced to choose only between Clinton and Trump, the vast majority would choose Clinton and yet they would add only about 1 percentage point to her overall margin over Trump, according to current polls. That could matter in a close election, but the election isn’t looking all that close at the moment,” FiveThirtyEight said.

Among black voters – which represent 10 to 15 percent of all voters right now, Trump is tanking big time. In fact, he does not only trail Clinton, but also Johnson and Stein, boasting the worst figures seen for this period since 1948. Most polls show 1 to 2 percent support for Trump among black voters.

GOP Support Continues To Plummet

Beyond the polls, a series of prominent Republicans have been bailing on Trump. The disenchanted range from strategist Cyrus Krohn to Meg Whitman and Seth Klarman, to former GOP Senator Gordon Humphrey. Other notable Republicans who have withdrawn their support for Trump include Barbara Bush, Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, Richard Armitage, Hank Paulson, Sen. Susan Collins, Sen. Mark Kirk, and Sally Bradshaw. Check out some more Republicans who oppose to Trump here.

This week, controversy continued to stir up as people discussed Trump’s latest mishap: "We're letting people come in from terrorist nations that shouldn't be allowed because you can't vet them," he voiced. "There's no way of vetting them. You have no idea who they are. This could be the great Trojan horse of all time."

As elections get closer and troubles mount, a new batch of Republicans have decided to defect the party’s lines, to support Clinton. Among them were Lezlee Westine, director of public liaison and deputy assistant to the President during the Bush administration, former Michigan Gov. William Milliken, and veteran diplomat John Negroponte. Furthermore, a few days ago, former senior House Republican Wadi Gaitan stepped down from his position as the chief spokesman for the Florida Republican Party, citing strong differences with Trump.

In addition to the prominent GOP members leaving Trump’s side, many regular Republican women are also doing so. Recent polls showed that only 72 percent of Republican women declared they would vote for Trump, well below the floor of 89 percent established by John McCain in 2008.

“Republican pollsters have long relied on a simple benchmark for their presidential candidates: They must win at least 90 percent of Republicans to capture the White House,” New York Times said. “But with some polls showing Mr. Trump struggling to attract even 75 percent of Republican women, that could prove an impossible task.”

Posted-In: Clinton Donald Trump elections FiveThirtyEight Gary JohnsonPolitics Crowdsourcing General

 

Related Articles (GOOG + GOOGL)

View Comments and Join the Discussion!