Market Overview

Exclusive: 3 Economic Experts Preview December's Payroll Data


December's non-farm payroll data will be released at 8:30 a.m. on Friday. Change in nonfarm payrolls for December is expected to read 240,000 versus a reading of 321,000 in November. Private payrolls is expected to read 228,000, versus a reading of 314,000 in November.

The unemployment rate is expected to tick lower to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent in November.

Speaking to Benzinga, Insana's Market Intelligence author Ron Insana said that expectations of 245,000 jobs created in December is reasonable and that he is “comfortable with the consensus.”

Former Federal Reserve Officer and Economist Dr. Thomas Simpson may also be comfortable with the consensus estimate. Speaking to Benzinga, he estimates December's jobs report will read somewhere between 225,000 to 250,000 on the payroll side.

Simpson also said that it is important to watch the hourly wages figure and that a 0.3 percent or 0.4 percent increase in December's data would suggest the labor market is tightening and cost pressures will start to boost inflation after the effects of the strong dollar and drop in energy prices disappear.

Finally, economist and Associate Professor for Keensaw State University Dr. Mikhail Melnik told Benzinga that he expects December's payroll growth to be around 220,000, with private payroll rising by about 205,000.

"Despite the strong jump in the third quarter GDP, non-resident structural investment was barely positive, indicating a somewhat soft business confidence and a possible pullback in payroll going ahead," Melnik said. The professor, however, did add that low interest rates and low commodity prices may have stimulated consumer confidence.

Posted-In: December Nonfarm Payrolls Insana Mikhail Melnik Nonfarm PayrollPreviews Economics Exclusives Trading Ideas


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