Market Overview

Standish Melon Cuts Q1 US Growth to 1.5% from 2%; Sees Eurozone GDP 1.2% for 2014; China GDP Growth at 7.2% for 2014, 7.0% in 2015


Emerging markets are likely to benefit later in the year from stronger growth in the United States and Europe despite the current cloud cast by slowing economic growth in China and geopolitical risks elsewhere, according to the April Global Macro Views report from Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, the Boston-based fixed income manager for BNY Mellon.

"In the U.S., we are beginning to see tentative signs of a pickup in economic data following a harsh winter," said Thomas D. Higgins, chief economist and chief global strategist for Standish. "In the euro zone, we have become slightly more optimistic given declining sovereign spreads in peripheral Europe and the possible freeing up of bank capital later this year after the European Central Bank's asset quality review."

Overall, Standish retained its forecast for global Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) at 3.5 percent for 2014 and 3.7 percent for 2015.

In the U.S., Standish credited a thaw from harsh winter weather in March to improvements in employment, retail sales and industrial production. Standish lowered its forecast for 2014 first quarter growth to 1.5 percent from 2.0 percent due to a larger-than-expected trade gap in February.

However, Higgins added, "We still expect growth to rebound to between 2.5 percent and 3.0 percent for the remainder of the year."

In the euro zone, Standish forecasts GDP growth at 1.2 percent for 2014 and 1.0 percent for 2015. A major concern in the region is the trend toward disinflation, and monetary policy needs to be eased, the report said. In the United Kingdom, Standish is expecting GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2014 and 2.5 percent in 2015.

Regarding China, Standish said retail sales, industrial production and exports have been disappointing. GDP growth is expected to slow from 7.2 percent in 2014 to 7.0 percent in 2015, Standish said.

In other regions, GDP growth in 2014 is projected at 3.2 percent in Latin America, 2.6 percent in Eastern Europe, 0.5 percent in Russia, 2.3 percent in South Africa, and 1.2 percent in Japan.

Notes to Editors:

Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC, with approximately $162 billion of assets under management, provides investment management services across a broad spectrum of fixed income asset classes. These include corporate credit, emerging markets debt (dollar-denominated and local currency), core / core plus, tax–sensitive, short duration, stable value and opportunistic (U.S. and global) strategies. Standish also offers full service capabilities in insurance client strategies and liability driven investing. The firm includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation and The Bank of New York Mellon and Alcentra NY, LLC personnel acting as dual officers of Standish. Standish, Dreyfus and The Bank of New York Mellon are affiliated subsidiaries of BNY Mellon.

BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world's leading investment management organizations and one of the top U.S. wealth managers, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management. It encompasses BNY Mellon's affiliated investment management firms, wealth management services and global distribution companies. More information can be found at

BNY Mellon is a global investments company dedicated to helping its clients manage and service their financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. Whether providing financial services for institutions, corporations or individual investors, BNY Mellon delivers informed investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. As of December 31, 2013, BNY Mellon had $27.6 trillion in assets under custody and/or administration, and $1.6 trillion in assets under management. BNY Mellon can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute or restructure investments. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK). Additional information is available on, or follow us on Twitter @BNYMellon.

All information source BNY Mellon as of December 31, 2013. This press release is qualified for issuance in the UK, Europe and US and is for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or solicitation of securities or investment services or an endorsement thereof in any jurisdiction or in any circumstance in which such offer or solicitation is unlawful or not authorized. Any views and opinions contained in this document are those of the author as at the date of issue; are subject to change and should not be taken as investment advice. BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited and its affiliates are not responsible for any subsequent investment advice given based on the information supplied. This press release is issued by BNY Mellon Investment Management (US) and BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited (ex-US) to members of the financial press and media and the information contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise due to stock market and currency movements. When you sell your investment you may get back less than you originally invested. Registered office of BNY Mellon Investment Management EMEA Limited: BNY Mellon Centre, 160 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4LA. Registered in England no. 1118580. Authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. A BNY Mellon Company.

Posted-In: News Futures Forex Economics Markets Press Releases


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