Do Recent J.C. Penney Share Prices Reflect Investor Optimism or False Hope?

J.C. Penney JCP shares jumped more than eight percent Wednesday closing at $9.44. This, despite a $489 million Q3 loss, compared with a $123 million loss during the same period a year ago.

The adjusted loss of $1.81 per share was more than the $1.77 per share loss analysts expected according to Reuters.

J.C. Penney CEO, Myron Ullman in a call to analysts Wednesday said, "The turnaround at J.C. Penney is beginning to take hold."

One sign that Ullman may be right was the fact the company had its first monthly same-store sales gain since December 2011 at the end of the quarter. This news, however, was somewhat tempered by the fact that overall revenue at stores open at least year fell 4.8 percent for the period.

USA Today reported that Brian Nagel, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. said, “We're seeing some signs that the company is beginning to turn around."

Moody’s VP, Maggie Taylor called the slight bump in comparable store sales in October “a sign of hope.”

Related: Ackman Done With J.C. Penney, Sells Entire Stake

The company is in the process of recovering from former CEO Ron Johnson’s strategy of eliminating discounts, something customers disliked. For the holiday season, Ullman has promised plenty of sales and bargain pricing.

"We must compete to win," Ullman told USA Today, adding, "We know what the problems are, we know how to fix them and we have the team to do that."

Like many chains, J.C. Penney will be open Thanksgiving Day, starting at 8 p.m. and for 25 straight hours through Black Friday. The company also said it would have a larger assortment of items on its website, jcp.com, than last year.

Meanwhile, in addition to getting customers back into its stores, the company has had to deal with a serious inventory “shrinkage” problem according to The Wall Street Journal. Inventory “shrinkage” refers to theft and losses due to error.

One reason for the increase in merchandise losses was a decision to remove security tags from many items, making it easier for both employees and customers to steal.

For investors, controlling inventory losses, as important as that is, will not be enough. In order for shareholder confidence to grow, revenue will have to grow.

That, according to Jim Cramer’s The Street, will not come from optimism alone.

“Unless you're a nimble day trader who has got the action, got the motion and doesn't know the names of the pieces of paper he buys, sells, flips and shorts,” the website advised, “you have no business being in JCP. None.”

At the time of this writing, Jim Probasco had no position in any mentioned securities.

Posted In: NewsJim CramerWall Street JournalEventsMediaBlack FridayBrian NagelJ.C. Penneyjcp.comJim CramerMaggie TaylorMoodymyron ullmanOppenheimer & Co.Ron JohnsonshrinkageThanksgiving Day
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