Google to Overtake Apple in 2016

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The iPhone maker's days are numbered. You've been warned.
I frequently tell my friends and colleagues that it would only take one brilliant device for Sony
SNE
, Nokia
NOK
, Hewlett-Packard
HPQ
, or Research in Motion
RIMM
to turn themselves around. If it's popular enough, that single device would serve as the catalyst for future purchases. It would make us take a second look at the company that built it. In time, it could turn us into a bunch of crazed fans that rivals the loyalty and enthusiasm of Apple's most devoted consumers. This is how all tech companies succeed. Sony did it with the Walkman (and again with the original PlayStation). More impressive than that was the way Apple transformed its business with a simple (but innovative) MP3 player: the iPod. Now Google is poised to do the same with its breathtaking Project Glass initiative. Project Glass will be the first step in a revolutionary new development within the world of mobile technology. In simple terms, it could eliminate the need for most of the devices people can't live without -- most notably smartphones. Not that Google would ever want to cannibalize its billion-dollar Android business. I'm sure the glasses will interface with your existing phone, at least initially. But long-term, there's no reason why smartphone technology shouldn't be baked right into the glasses. That's not where the innovation comes from, however. There will always be devices that replace the need for other technology. Cell phones, for example, made beepers irrelevant. Some would argue that they were always irrelevant. But when cell phones hit it big, the world no longer needed a device that beeped whenever your best friend needed to chat. Project Glass is more than a replacement device – it is conceivably the next evolution in mobile computing. Remember those sci-fi moves that told us the world would one day possess a wearable computer? This could be it. If nothing else, Project Glass could lead to a novelty device (or several novelty devices) that people can't live without. For example, some consumers find it hard to be without a GPS after using one. Imagine what those same people might experience after having a 3D map float in front of their face while walking through New York City. I don't know if Google will market Project Glass with the Android name. But just as developers can use Android to build fresh apps for your smartphone, you can be sure that Google will allow developers to tinker with its glasses. And that's where the fun really begins. Beyond the professional uses I speculated about earlier this week (ex: Project Glass could be a
life-saving device for policemen
, firemen, etc.), Project Glass could become the ultimate toy. Not a "toy" in the way that action figures and Barbie dolls are toys. But in the way that people describe the iPhone and the many ways they use it to entertain themselves throughout the day. Unlike a phone, however, Google is attempting to produce a hands-free experience with Project Glass. This is almost ironic considering how much Apple hates buttons. You would have though that the Mac maker would have been the first to release a computer device that didn't require any physical interactions. But innovation has never been born out of the places where it is most expected. Rather, innovation most often comes from new and unusual locations. In this case, it's Google. In terms of entertainment, Google could surely offer apps that allow users to stream Netflix
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, Amazon Prime
AMZN
, Hulu, and other visual treats right in front of our eyeballs. But that's an easy fix. Users don't really need to have a movie right in front of them like that, as evidenced by the numerous (failed!) attempts by tech companies to popularize VR goggles. But if consumers already owned a device that could do that, they'd surely take advantage of the feature. I suspect that's what will happen with Project Glass. Consumers will buy it for other reasons, but find that many of its features -- even the less necessary ones -- are pretty darn appealing once they're at our disposal. Those "other" reasons, by the way, will be the number-one thing that sells the iPhone: apps. Let's think for a moment about the kinds of apps a talented developer could implement.
Racing
Not a car game (that could be fun but dangerous if people were inspired to play it while driving), but an app that challenged you and your friends to an on-foot race. Google+ could be used to synch-up each player, and the app could use Google Maps to analyze the location, determine its level of safety (ex: the app would not function in a busy city), and produce a 3D map showing your course. When the race begins, the map would disappear, allowing each participant to focus on what's in front of them in the real world. If someone makes a wrong turn, Project Glass would alert the wayward player of this mistake with a visual or audio cue. The player could then be given the chance to take a second look at the map, or turn on guide arrows that would appear at the top of the screen (well, at the top of the image projected from the glasses) to lead the player to the finish line. The arrow would be small and appear high up so it wouldn't interfere with the player's line of sight. As each player crosses the finish line, a small icon of each winner's face would appear on screen, showing everyone who came in first, second, third, etc. While this might sound ridiculously simple, let's not forget the power of a simple app. We also shouldn't forget about the power of a clever device that encourages exercise. Nintendo (
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NTDOY
) sold more than 15 million copies of the original Wii Fit. And many of Wii Fit's buyers had to get a Wii first because they didn't already have one. In other words, people are willing to spend big money on electronics that provide them with a fun (even gimmicky) way to stay in shape.
Scavenger Hunt
Here's an idea for a game that users
could
safely play in a busy city. In this app, Google would once again use its mapping site. But in this scenario, it would use Google Maps to locate something specific -- say, the number of payphones that are available -- and, without showing any of the players where they are, tell them to locate as many payphones as they possibly can within a specified amount of time. When the clock runs out, the person who found the most payphones would be crowned the winner. As with my first app concept, this one is pretty straightforward. But these are just a couple of ideas that I thought of in the past hour, and I'm not an app developer. Can you imagine the many brilliant things that will be produced by those who are? I can. And I can't wait.
Soaring to the Top
Apple shares may continue to soar in the coming months and years. But Google could still overtake the Mac maker. It won't happen overnight, of course. But if Project Glass is all its cracked up to be, it won't be long before everyone -- even Google's biggest critics -- want to own a pair. Google is reportedly playing it smart, as it plans to integrate this technology in our existing glasses with a small attachment. This, of course, isn't enough for Google to overtake Apple. But it's the
start
of something. Not long ago, Apple got its own start with the iPod, one of the most innovative devices of its time. And look at where Apple is today. Four years from now, Google could be in a similar position.
Follow me @LouisBedigian
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Posted In: NewsRumorsSuccess StoriesTechGoogleGoogle GlassesProject Glass
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