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Survey: No OPEC Deal Expected, Oil Spikes 3% Regardless

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Survey: No OPEC Deal Expected, Oil Spikes 3% Regardless

The price of oil spiked higher by nearly 4 percent Monday as OPEC member nations and their representatives gathered for an informal meeting to reach an agreement that will limit oil output levels.

Commentary from Saudi Arabia and Iran appear to indicate that an agreement is unlikely to be reached. Moreover, a CNBC survey of oil and commodity analysts, traders and experts are equally pessimistic.

Related Link: Oil Rises As Informal OPEC Meeting Underway

According to CNBC's Oil Survey involving 23 oil analysts, traders and experts, 65 percent of respondents believe no agreement will be reached. However, oil bears won't end up as being winners at the end of the year as 90 percent of respondents believe the price of a barrel of oil will close the year above the $40 mark.

"Crude oil is comfortable between $40 and $52 per barrel, but that range would be extraordinarily uncomfortable should there be any hint of U.S. recession," Tom Kloza, head of global energy research at the Oil Price Information Service told CNBC. "The lows are likely in October, when global refinery maintenance peaks. The highs may occur at year's end, but only if we have some early winter in the northern hemisphere."

Of note, 39 percent of respondents listed global demand trends as being the largest influencer of oil price, followed by 22 percent who said global overproduction while just 13 percent said OPEC is the most important factor in determining crude oil prices.

Finally, 35 percent of respondents believe a Donald Trump presidency would result in oil prices moving higher compared to just 17 percent who share a similar belief for Hillary Clinton.

Posted-In: CNBC Oil oil prices OPEC Meeting Tom KloczaCommodities Markets Media Best of Benzinga

 

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