Draghi On Tap, Look For Vol Crush; The Case For 30 More Handles Of $ES_F Upside

Collective Intelligence!

Snippets: All things Draghi … drum roll please! Potential? Reaction no matter what the outcome is. Mikey_P noted, If you are holding options, beware, they will blow the premium out of them big-time after the ECB is digested. ***Thin to win – U.S.-based stock funds post $2.4 bln outflows in latest week.

All things AAPL along with a repost from last week: Cy – what do you think for the short term – In a word still, constructive. As trite as this expression is, it’s still apropos … “As [AAPL] goes, so goes the market” … After having achieved a local top in late 2012, AAPL – [SPX] correlations plunged to -75%, recovered briefly in Spring 2013, only to turn negative again in Fall 2013. However, since making this “higher low,” the relationship has maintained its positive bias … For the conspiracy theorists in your room, here’s a nugget … a clue: 1001 nights and 40 thieves … biggest IPO ever … will the establishment allow a 10% correction ahead of this monumental event? It’s basically this year’s version of Pitbull’s [FB] theory from 2012 …

“The SP500 has now achieved new highs for 11 straight months, which matches the 1985-1986 record run (going back to 1928)” – [TWTR].

Kinda funny HOW from November of LAST YEAR to February 5th – WE ARE GOING TO GET AT LEAST A NOSEBLEED RALLY — ALL THE ‘TIME’ PLAYERS, media were JABBERING about the YEAR 1929 similarities —- UH, I GUESS IF YOU KNOW PRICE IS YOUR ARSE – THEN you may have wanted to HAVE the PRICE 1929 in your QUIVER NOT THE YEAR – William Blount.  Now, that’s just weird…

E-mini 30 more handles to complete 1956 upside fib extension of 76.4% and 1844-1732 range expansion. No pullback until objective complete, breaks turning into bear traps to fuel squeeze - Chicagostock. *Take a look at the bottom of this page for a possible match.

Today started with 158k ESM traded on Globex, trading range was 1916.00 – 1923.00. Yesterday’s regular trading hours (RTH’s), pit session trading range was 1922.80 – 1916.70 before settling at 1922.10, up .3 handles. The disappointing premarket economic reports dented sentiment. Private sector hiring slowed in May while April’s gains were revised lower. The trade deficit jumped in April to a two-year high, while at the same time productivity in the first quarter declined sharply – Polar Vortex …

Today’s RTH’s, pit session, gapped 4 handles lower to 1918.00 – 1918.50 wtih a first 15 minute trading range of  1916.80 – 1919.50. Following the 9:00 relaese of the 9:00 ISM data checking in at 56.3 vs exp 55.5 – the all-too-familiar-grind to yet another all-time high was in motion. We knew that because we got the heads-up fromwilliam_blount (09:16) IF WE DO A NORMAL DAY, not a link stink or wedge zoom, THE LOW OF DAY IS IN PLACE – NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE LAST FRIDAY = 1912.5 spoo and 1929-32.86 CASH and WORK IN.

@PivotBoss midday vid  http://bit.ly/1jRooubADR Trgts  http://bit.ly/1iXG483

*Beige Book shows economic growth increases in all 12 districts

*Manufacturing expanded throughout the nation

*Consumer Spending Grew at Moderate Pace

*Fed’s Beige Book Shows Price Pressures Were Contained

*Overall Lending Activity Increased Throughout the US

After extending to 1927.00 all-time record high (1928.63 cash) a listless, waffling price action in the upper end of the day’s range followed. The MiM – MrTopStep Imbalance Meter started with a small buy imbalance and expanded to $500M going into the cash close. The cash close traded 1925.90 area before settling at 1925.70, up 3.6 handles on light volume of  911k e-minis, while the [VIX] was up 21 ticks after testing the 2013 low area – as well as lows not seen since 1st qtr of 2007.

Eco calendars: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/    http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar

According to Hilsenrath, the Fed is growing worried about markets being too complacent and comfortable with risk and at this point rate hike expectations may be out of line with the FOMC’s. WSJhttp://on.wsj.com/S4mMGH

Posted Monday:  Posted by William Blount:  IF WE CONTINUE TO GRIND AROUND 1929-32.86 CASH and 1912.5 SPOO through Wednesday then I will suggest my 4thh option trade over the last 6 months – all are / have been straddles. for those who read the premarket commentary and see the straddle strategy – what 2 prices am I looking at to tag ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER on SPOO FUTURES OR CASH b4 next friday?  Carina- WB the time frame on the straddle is this Friday?   NO, NEXT FRIDAY – you have a TWO EVENT CATALYST WINDOW this week.
Answer: 1954 cash or 1887 futures by SC – check out Chicagostock above – Emini 30 handles ….