Pre-Market Global Review - 11/26/13 - Iran Accord Moves Markets
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 5:15 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar –Down at 80.765, the Dec US Dollar is down 198 ticks and is trading at 80.765.
Energies – January Oil is up at 94.67.
Financials – The December 30 year bond is up 15 ticks and trading at 132.15.
Indices – The December S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 3 ticks and trading at 1801.75.
Gold – The December gold contract is trading up at 1251.30 and is up 100 ticks from its close. Note: The front month for crude is now January "14.
Initial Conclusion: This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down-and oil is up+ which is normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice versa. The indices are lower and the US dollar is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading higher which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia traded mainly to the downside. As of this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible challenges to traders today is the following:
1. Building Permits are out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
2. Housing Starts are out at 8:30 AM EST. This is major.
3. S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y is out at 9 AM EST. This is not major.
4. HPI m/m is out at 9 AM EST. This is major.
5. CB Consumer Confidence is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
6. Richmond Manufacturing Index is out at 10 AM EST. This is major.
Yesterday the Swiss Franc made it's move after 9:30 AM EST with no real economic news to speak of. The USD rose and the Swiss Franc fell. This was a shorting opportunity on the Swiss Franc. The key to capitalizing on these trades is to watch the USD movement. The USD rise only lent confirmation to the move. As a trader you could have netted 20 plus ticks on this trade.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades
|Swiss Franc - 12/13 - 11/25/13|
|USD - 12/13 - 11/25/13|
Yesterday we said the markets would advance despite the fact that the markets weren't correlated as such.. The Dow rose 8 points and the Nasdaq advanced 3 briefly touching the 4000 mark, a level not seen since 1999. Today we aren't dealing with a correlated market and our bias is neutral. Why? Whereas crude and gold are trading higher and the USD is lower; the Bonds are trading much higher. Additionally Asia closed lower and Europe is currently trading lower. Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
The reason we said the markets would advance was due to the Iran Nuclear Accord. This was agreed upon Sunday night in Geneva (just in time for Asia to open) whereby Iran agreed to slow production of nuclear grade plutonium in exchange for a lift of economic sanctions. This in turn caused the price of oil and gold to drop. Crude dropped dramatically from Friday's close but rebounded (somewhat) yesterday. The question is will this trend continue or will the price of crude rebound?
Many of my readers have been asking me to spell out the rules of Market Correlation. Recently Futures Magazine has elected to print a story on the subject matter and I must say I'm proud of the fact that they did as I'm Author of that article. I encourage all viewers to read that piece as it spells out the rules of market correlation and provides charts that show how it works in action. The article is entitled "How to Exploit and Profit from Market Correlation" and can be viewed at:
As a follow up to the first article on Market Correlation, I've produced a second segment on this subject matter and Futures Magazine has elected to publish it. It can be viewed at:
As readers are probably aware I don't trade equities. While we're on this discussion, let's define what is meant by a good earnings report. A company must exceed their prior quarter's earnings per share and must provide excellent forward guidance. Any falloff between earning per share or forward guidance will not bode well for the company's shares. This is one of the reasons I don't trade equities but prefer futures. There is no earnings reports with futures and we don't have to be concerned about lawsuits, scandals, malfeasance, etc.
Anytime the market isn't correlated it's giving you a clue that something isn't right and you should proceed with caution. Today our bias is neutral. Could this change? Of course. In a volatile market anything can happen. We'll have to monitor and see.
As I write this the crude markets are trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Think of it this way. If the stock market is trading lower, it's safe to assume that the crude market will follow suit and vice versa. Crude trades with the expectation that business activity is expanding. The barometer of which is the equities or stock market. If you view both the crude and index futures side by side you will notice this. Yesterday January crude dropped to a low of 93.08 a barrel and held. We'll have to monitor and see if crude either goes lower or holds at the present level. It would appear at the present time that crude has support at $93.30 a barrel and resistance at 94.82. This could change. All we need do is look at what happened last fall when crude was trading over $100.00 a barrel. We'll have to monitor and see. Remember that crude is the only commodity that is reflected immediately at the gas pump.
- Budget Battle - Forthcoming.
Crude oil is trading higher and the US Dollar is declining. This is normal. Crude typically makes 3 major moves (long or short) during the course of any trading day: around 9 AM EST, 11 AM EST and 2 PM EST when the crude market closes. If crude makes major moves around those time frames, then this would suggest normal trending, if not it would suggest that something is not quite right. If you feel compelled to trade consider doing so after 10 AM when the economic reports are released and the markets give us better direction. As always watch and monitor your order flow as anything can happen in this market. This is why monitoring order flow in today's market is crucial. We as traders are faced with numerous challenges that we didn't have a few short years ago. High Frequency Trading is one of them. I'm not an advocate of scalping however in a market as volatile as this scalping is an alternative to trend trading.
Remember that without knowledge of order flow we as traders are risking our hard earned capital and the Smart Money will have no issue taking it from us. Regardless of whatever platform you use for trading purposes you need to make sure it's monitoring order flow. Sceeto does an excellent job at this. To fully capitalize on this newsletter it is important that the reader understand how the various market correlate. More on this in subsequent editions.
Nick Mastrandrea is the author of Market Tea Leaves. Market Tea Leaves is a free, daily newsletter that discuses and teaches market correlation. Market Tea Leaves is published daily, pre-market in the United States and can be viewed at www.markettealeaves.com Interested in Market Correlation? Want to learn more? Signup and receive Market Tea Leaves each day prior to market open. As a subscriber, you’ll also receive our daily Market Bias video that is only available to subscribers.
The following article is from one of our external contributors. It does not represent the opinion of Benzinga and has not been edited.