EUR/USD Forecast: Neutral In The Short-Term, The Bearish Case Will Be Firmer On A Break Below 1.1750

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1818

• US Durable Goods Orders were up by 11.2% in July, beating the market’s expectations.
• Federal Reserve chief Powell to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this Thursday.
• EUR/USD is neutral in the short-term, the bearish case will be firmer on a break below 1.1750.

The EUR/USD pair held within familiar levels for a third consecutive day, finishing Wednesday little changed in the 1.1820 price zone. The dollar enjoyed some temporal demand at the beginning of the US session, helped by upbeat local data. Durable Goods Orders were up 11.2% in July, much better than the 4.3% expected, while Nondefence Capital Goods Orders ex-Aircraft met expectations at 1.9%.  The pair fell to 1.1771 after the headline but recovered afterwards as the dollar was unable to retain gains.

Investors held a cautious stance throughout the day, ahead of US Federal Reserve Chief’s Powell appearance on Thursday, at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Market talks suggest that he is likely to stage a new monetary policy framework based around average inflation targeting (AIT). The US will also release the second estimate of Q2 GDP, foreseen at -32.5% from a previous estimate of -32.9%, and the usual weekly unemployment claims, seen at 1 million for the week ended August 21.

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EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

The EUR/USD pair has spent yet another day inside the range defined last Friday. The 4-hour chart offers a neutral stance, as the pair has been seesawing around its 20 and 100 SMA, which remain flat. Technical indicators, in the meantime, stand around their midlines, also lacking clear directional strength.  Overall, the risk is skewed to the downside, although a firmer bearish extension will be likely on a break below 1.1750, where the pair met buyers by the end of last week.

Support levels: 1.1790 1.1750 1.1710

Resistance levels: 1.1840 1.1885 1.1920

View Live Chart for the EUR/USD