FX Morning Espresso European Edition
Tuesday 4th of February 2014
US Jan light vehicle sales 1.01 mln units, -3%, 15.24 mln annual rate.
CBI survey – Smaller UK mfg investment intentions up in January.
RBA leaves OCR unch at 2.5%, policy appropriate, inflation somewhat higher than forecast but still consistent with target, investment-wages in decline, growth likely below trend for time, AUD lower, could help economy.
NZ Jan ANZ commodity price index +1.2%, +22.6 y/y, record high.
Economic Data &Events
- 9:30 UK Markit/CIPS Cons PMI
- 09:30 SA SACCI January business confidence index (ZABCI=ECI)
- 10:00 Italy CPI (EU norm) prelim yy
- 10:00 Italy CPI (EU norm) prelim mm
- 10:00 Italy Consumer price prelim yy
- 10:00 EZ Producer prices yy
- 10:00 Italy Consumer price prelim mm
- 10:00 Brazil FIPE inflation index
- 10:00 EZ Producer prices mm
EZ PPI vs CPI Source:Reuters
Macro calendar will be relatively light on both sides of Atlantic on Tuesday .European calendar gets underway at 0930 GMT with the release of UK CIPS constr.PMI .At10000 GMT Italy CPI will hit the wires.At 1000 GMT EZ PPI is set for release.NorAm session will the publication of US Durable goods and factory orders
EURUSD -Bearish. Signs of basing
Short term outlook is negative below 1,3540 .Rate is showing tentative signs of basing around 1,3480/1,3500 .Market may need to wipeout stale shorts before next leg lower.Break above 1,3540/50 opens door for a larger correction twds 1,3580/90 Rallies are still seen as sell opportunity Big picture turned bearish on a daily close below 1,3520.
USDJPY-Bearish.Approaching key support
Short term picture is negative below 101,60 .Rate is approaching strong support in 100,80/60 area where buyers may reemerge.Stick to shorts targeting 100,80/60 initailly and 100,10 (200DSMA) in extension.
Big picture turned bearish on break and daily close below 102,50
GBPUSD -Bearish .Oversold
Short term outlook is negative below 1,6360 .Rallies are seen as an opportunity to reinstate shorts .Sharp 150 p selloff, seen on Monday ,pushed rate into oversold teritory.We'd be cautious with setting shorts at current depressed levels ,however there are no signs of short term bottom yet.Rate is testing key m/t support at 1,6280 Daily close below turns m/t picture bearish.
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