(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, the economic data, and the headline were updated in the story.)

U.S. stock futures pared earlier losses to rise on Friday following Thursday’s lower close. Futures of the major benchmark indices were up.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the second estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP was revised down to an annual growth rate of 0.7%, reflecting a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% seen in the third quarter.

Concurrently, January 2026 data shows a resilient consumer despite the slowdown, with personal income rising 0.4% and personal spending (PCE) increasing 0.4%. While the headline PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year in January, the core PCE—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—remains more persistent at 3.1%, up from 3.0% in December.

These threats to regional energy infrastructure coincide with the confirmed crash of a U.S. KC-135 refueling plane in Iraq and reports of explosions in Dubai following a drone interception.

The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28%, and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged in March.

Stocks In Focus

Adobe

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ADBE maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms, with a moderate quality score.

Mosaic, CF Industries, Nutrien

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that MOS maintains a weaker price trend over the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a solid quality score.

PAR Technology

• PAR Technology Corp. (NYSE:PAR) plunged 22.08% after it announced the pricing of a private offering of $250 million in 4.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2031.

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that PAR maintains a weaker price trend over the short, medium, and long terms.

Ulta Beauty

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ULTA maintains a weak price trend over the short term, but a strong trend in the medium and long terms, with a moderate value score.

Zumiez

• Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that ZUMZ maintains a weaker price trend over the short and medium terms but a strong trend in the long term, with a moderate quality score.

Cues From Last Session

Energy and utilities closed higher on Thursday, while industrial, consumer discretionary, health care, and IT sectors tumbled, dragging the broader indices down.

Insights From Analysts

Senior Global Market Strategist Scott Wren maintains a cautiously optimistic view of the U.S. economy despite current “financial-market turmoil.”

While acknowledging that “there will likely be some short-term inflation effects,” particularly through rising gas and grocery prices, Wren believes a recession is unlikely.

He attributes this resilience to a structural shift: the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil and possesses a “much more service oriented” economy compared to the energy-intensive periods of past Gulf Wars.

Regarding the stock market, Wren identifies a lack of clarity driven by “oil prices on a roller-coaster ride.” Consequently, he recommends a strategic shift away from overextended energy assets. He suggests investors bring Energy sector and commodity allocations back to neutral, rotating those funds into U.S. Large Cap and Mid Cap Equities.

Within these classes, he identifies Financials as the “most favored” due to recent underperformance, while also showing a preference for Industrials and Utilities.

Essentially, Wren views the current volatility as a prompt to rebalance toward broader equity sectors while the economy weathers temporary energy disruptions.

Upcoming Economic Data

Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Friday.

Commodities, Crypto, And Global Equity Markets

Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.77% to hover around $97.42 per barrel.

Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.02% to hover around $5,068.80 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $5,595.46 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.52% higher at the 100.2550 level.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was trading 2.24% higher at $100.2550 per coin, as per the last 24 hours.

Asian markets closed lower on Friday, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng, India’s Nifty 50, Australia's ASX 200, China’s CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi indices fell. European markets were also lower in early trade.

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