The U.S. stock market struggled to gain momentum on Monday as investors remained cautious ahead of Election Day on Tuesday.
Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 1-point lead over ex-President Donald Trump, according to the New York Times national polling average; she has a 4-point lead among likely voters nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll.
Betting markets, as tracked by the CFTC-regulated Kalshi, favor a Trump win at a 53% chance, but with diminishing odds compared to previous weeks. Also, the betting odds are susceptible to wild swings from so-called "whale" bettors, including one individual on Polymarket who spent as much as $43 million on a Trump victory.
“Neither candidate holds a meaningful edge in enough states to win 270 electoral votes. In the history of modern polling, there's never been a race where the final polls showed such a close contest,” said Nate Cohn, chief political analyst for the New York Times.
The S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, while the Dow dropped 0.6%, hitting its lowest intraday level since mid-September. In contrast, small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 outperformed, rising 1%. The Nasdaq 100 also retreated, dipping below the 20,000 mark.
Treasury yields fell by nearly 10 basis points as investors scaled back positions linked to Trump’s inflationary policies, such as high tariffs and more expansionary fiscal measures. The dollar also weakened, down 0.5%.
The increasing likelihood of a Harris victory gave a boost to solar and renewable energy stocks, with the Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:TAN) climbing 3.6%.
Oil and gas stocks also gained, as crude prices surged 3% after OPEC+ postponed an anticipated production hike. Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) jumped 3%, marking its largest single-day gain since late June.
Gold held steady at $2,740, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) fell over 1%, dropping below $68,000.
Monday’s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs
According to Benzinga Pro data:
Monday’s Stock Movers
Stocks reacting to earnings reports included:
Now Read:
Image: Shutterstock
© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
To add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.
