Data says... No-Landing

Good Morning Everyone!

Remember, if you can't afford breakfast because of inflation, just take the media's advice and don't eat!

Prices as of 4 pm EST, 2/14/23; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE

No to Soft Landing/Yes to No-Landing

No-Landing

• Data says……higher interest rates. 3.3% to 3.7% (chart below)

• Feb. 3                    non-farm payrolls up 517,000 in January

• Feb. 15                  CPI rose 0.5% in January, up 6.4% year-over-year

FOMC March 22 meeting

• Yesterday’s CPI report guarantees a 25 point hike

• Powell may signal further increases likely (no pause)

Today’s data

• 7:00 a.m.             mortgage applications

• 8:30 a.m.             retail sales          +3.0% vs. 1.9% estimate, most in 2 years (No-Landing)

• 9:15 a.m.             industrial and manufacturing production data

Crude    $78         -1%

• American Petroleum Institute reported a large crude build

Tesla TSLA

• Will open part of its charging network to other vehicles by end of 2024

• Why? To qualify for government funds in its effort to build a National System

Berkshire Hathaway

• 13F filing for Q4 2022

• Reduced: Taiwan Semi, US Bancorp, Bank of New York, Activision, Ally Financial, Chevron

• Increased: Louisiana-Pacific, Paramont, Apple

Uber/Dash UBER DASH

• New York City Commission will make final wage ruling today

Earnings

• Airbnb ABNB +9% Q4 EBITDA beat and guide above street, lower N.A. stronger international     

• TripAdvisor TRIP +10% experiences bookings beat street estimates

• Devon DVN -8% Q4 miss, 2023 capex guide higher than expected

• Analog Devices ADI +4% slight beat and raise driven by Auto & Industrial chips

• Kraft Heinz KHC flat  modest beat, conservative guide

• Biogen BIIB flat new CEO, modest beat

• Roblox RBLX +15% January bookings beat

CRYPTO UPDATE

Binance outflows

• Binance stablecoin (BUSD) saw $1 billion in outflows on Monday

• Represents ~6% of reserves

Tether ~$1 billion inflows

• As traders flee BUSD, Tether gains strength

• Stablecoing market dominance now > 50%

CME expanding event contracts

• Will include Bitcoin futures

• Product launch March 13 (pending regulatory approval)

• Allows traders to bet on closing price throughout day

Month-to-date performance: