Germany Shoots Down Latest Eurobond Proposal

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday resisted calls to introduce bonds issued jointly by all eurozone member states. The so-called eurobonds would likely drive down borrowing costs for troubled eurozone members like Greece, Italy and Spain but if that were to happen, logic dictates that borrowing costs for countries like Germany would rise. European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso believes that eurobonds would be an effective way to reduce borrowing costs and would restore faith in the ability of all eurozone members to pay their debts. However, the Germans are concerned that eurobonds would simply raise the borrowing costs of financially healthy eurozone members, while removing incentives for troubled countries like Greece and Italy from sticking with reforms that are needed to reduce their fiscal deficits. In the long run, the eurozone could find itself in a similar position that is now but without a financially strong Germany their to bail it out. Many opponents of eurobonds aren't totally opposed to the idea of jointly issued eurobonds but they feel that now is not the right time for them. They feel that countries like Spain and Italy need to enact austerity measures that bring spending under control and lower their deficits before eurobonds are considered an option. Once these deficits began to fall and the financial markets saw that the countries were serious about their reforms, eurobonds could used as one of the final tools used to drive down borrowing costs. While the introduction of eurobonds could be welcomed by the financial markets initially, they could lead to an even worse financial crisis further down the road. Each country in the eurozone would have to worry less about its own debts and more about the borrowing of others. It's not inconceivable that a country that saw further financial difficulties on the horizon could try to increase borrowing before others did the same. In times of recession, eurobonds could actually see countries racing to become the next Greece.
ACTION ITEMS:

Bullish:
Traders who believe that German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be successful in resisting the introduction of eurobonds might want to consider the following trades:

  • The CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE could rise if Germany blocks European Commission attempts to sell eurobonds. Germany is the most powerful country in the European Union and eurobonds have no chance of becoming a reality as long as Germany opposes them. That could be good news for the euro because there are many investors who feel that eurobonds could be the final nail in the coffin of the euro.
Bearish:
Traders who believe that Europe is running out of options to prevent a financial collapse may consider an alternate position:

  • Investors who believe that Germany will eventually come to accept eurobonds as a last ditch tool to lower borrowing costs across Europe might want to shift funds into safe haven currencies like the dollar or the yen through ETFs like the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish UUP and the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust FXY. Large institutional investors have been reducing exposure to the debt of troubled eurozone members for a while now. Mixing "bad" debt with "good" debt could simply see institutional investors pulling funds out of Europe all together, which could drive up the value of the American dollar and the Japanese yen.
Neither Benzinga nor its staff recommend that you buy, sell, or hold any security. We do not offer investment advice, personalized or otherwise. Benzinga recommends that you conduct your own due diligence and consult a certified financial professional for personalized advice about your financial situation.
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Posted In: Long IdeasNewsBondsShort IdeasSpecialty ETFsFinancingCurrency ETFsMovers & ShakersPoliticsForexEventsGlobalEcon #sEconomicsMarketsTrading IdeasETFsGeneralAngela MerkelEuropean CommissionEuropean UnionEurozoneGermanyGreeceitalyJapanJose Manuel BarrosospainUnited States
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