Protests In China = Global Growth Concerns

Good Morning Everyone!

Somebody forgot to tell consumers we're headed into a recession.

Prices as of 4 pm ET, 11/25/22; % YTD

MARKET UPDATE

Complicating China’s path to reopening

• Protests erupted against China’s Covid-Zero strategy

• Wide spread: Beijing, Shanghai and over 100 Universities

• Largest threat to Chinese power since Tiananmen crisis 30 years ago

• China ETF

President Xi Jinping has recently secured a 3rd term

• And XI appointed Li Qiang (oversaw Shanghai lockdown) to the party’s #2 spot

• How will Xi react?

• Concern is that China will either suffer from continued lockdown measures

• Or…

• A health crisis if the government is forced to back-off from Zero-Covid

• If China is to reopen, we need to see a pivot from lockdowns to increased vaccination rates

10yr     

• 4.2% to 3.6%

• Falling bond yields may be signaling the expected slow-down in 2023

Wednesday Jay Powell commentary

Friday November U.S. jobs data

December 14     FOMC meeting

It’s interesting that the US dollar is weaker today in a “risk-off” tape

Crude 74 -2%

• Year to date, WTI crude is down 1%

Apple AAPL   -2%

• Concerns on iPhone Pro-14 unit shortfalls due to Chinese protests

• Plant in Zhengzhou likely result in a 6 million iPhone Pro shortfall this year

Thanksgiving Day online spending (Black Friday)

• Adobe ADBE reports online spending hit a record of $5.3 billion

• Up 2.9% year over year

Earnings None

CRYPTO UPDATE

Binance officially presents proof of reserves system

• Two weeks ago pledged to develop system

• Merkle-based system to verify holdings

• Bitcoin currently only token can use system

  • Coins to be added over coming weeks

SBF to speak Wednesday at New York Times event

• Dealbook summit with Andrew Sorkin

• Other speakers include Larry Fink (BlackRock), Eric Adams (NY mayor), Mike Pence (former vice president), President Zelensky (Ukraine), Mark Zuckerberg, Reed Hastings (Netflix)