North Dakota: America's "Economic Miracle State"

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve recently released June Coincident Economic Activity Indexes for all 50 states, along with a national coincident economic activity index.  These indexes are based on four economic indicators: a) nonfarm payroll employment, b) the unemployment rate, c) average hours worked in manufacturing, and d) wages and salaries.

The chart above displays the indexes for North Dakota and the United States over the last ten years, showing that the economic activity in North Dakota is completely "off the charts," along with the state's oil production and oil jobs, which are also showing explosive growth and driving economic growth in the "miracle state."  Even the "worst recession since the Great Depression" barely affected the shale oil-based economic activity in the Peace Garden State, and the June coincident index is 25% above the pre-recession level and almost 11% above a year ago.  Meanwhile the coincident economic activity index for the overall U.S. economy fell about 10.5% during the Great Recession and is now still less than 1% above the previous peak in early 2008.

The Philadelphia Fed also recently released its "State Leading Indexes" for the month of June, which "predict the six-month growth rate of the state's coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing survey, and the interest rate spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill." North Dakota's leading index for June predicts a 3.8% growth rate for the state's economy over the next six months, by far the highest expected growth rate among the 50 states (only No. 2 Ohio comes even close at 2.6%), and a rate of growth almost four times higher than the expected 1% at the national level.   

MP: The June coincident and leading indexes for the 50 states and the national economy provide additional support that North Dakota is the most economically successful state in the country thanks to its booming energy sector and pro-energy and pro-business policies - the "Dakota Model."  On every relevant measure of economic performance by state: job creation, unemployment rate, income growth, output growth, growth in oil production, tax revenue collected, construction activity, home foreclosure rates, housing prices, coincident and leading indexes, etc., the Peace Garden State leads the country and deserves the title of America's "miracle state."