NFIB - Index Up But Internals Weaken

While the NFIB Index, released today, posted its 6th monthly gain at the headline it is still 0.2 points below its level a year ago.  In other words, even after six monthly consecutive gains there has been no real progress to speak of.  While the economic and survey numbers are improving they continue "improving at a glacial pace"  which means they are very susceptible to any external shock that could occur.  One interesting note was on employment about an issue that we have repeatedly discussed; "The jobs numbers are looking better, but with such unusual weather, one is never sure just what the seasonal adjustments are doing to the measures."   There have been HUGE adjustments to the data in the last two months.  Due to the way that seasonal adjustments work to smooth the raw data over time - small differences as a result of weather impacts can have outsized impacts on the seasonally adjusted data.   As we move into the seasonally warmer months ahead this impact will be reversed and we will get a clearer picture of what employment is actually doing.  

"Reports of capital spending continued to improve, although the percent of owners characterizing the current period as a good time to expand fell in February and remains historically low. The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months rose 2 points to 57 percent, building on the solid gain posted in December. Plans for future expenditures are a ...