Economic Calendar - 9 August 2010
Here's the Economic Calendar for the week commencing the 9th of August 2010. This week China takes the spotlight with its monthly data dump; there's new loans, money supply, trade balance, CPI, fixed asset investment, industrial production, PPI, and retail sales. Then on the monetary policy front there's Japan, and the US who both meet to review policy this week. The EU is set to announce its second quarter GDP results this week, and from the US will be CPI, UoM & ABC confidence numbers, and the trade balance. Elsewhere there's employment numbers from Australia, consumer confidence from Japan, and house prices in New Zealand.
(More commentary follows the table)
|MON||CNY||M2 Money Supply y/y||18.6%||18.5%|
|MON||04:00||JPY||Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (AUG 9)|
|MON||06:00||EUR||German Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)||12.0B||9.7B|
|MON||22:45||NZD||NZ Card Spending (MoM) (JUL)||0.4|
|MON||23:50||JPY||Housing Loans (YoY) (2Q)||1.0%|
|TUE||04:00||JPY||Bank of Japan Rate Decision (AUG 10)||0.10%||0.10%|
|TUE||06:45||EUR||French Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN)||7.3%||8.2%|
|TUE||11:30||USD||NFIB Small Business Optimism (JUL)||89|
|TUE||18:15||USD||Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision||0.25%||0.25%|
|TUE||21:00||USD||ABC Consumer Confidence (AUG)|
|TUE||22:00||CNY||Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y||25.4%||25.5%|
|TUE||22:00||CNY||Industrial Production y/y||13.5%||13.7%|
|TUE||22:00||CNY||Retail Sales y/y||18.6%||18.3%|
|TUE||00:30||AUD||Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (AUG)||113.1|
|TUE||00:30||AUD||Westpac Consumer Confidence (AUG)||11.1%|
|WED||09:30||GBP||Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report|
|WED||12:30||USD||Trade Balance (JUN)||-$42.2B||-$42.3B|
|WED||18:00||USD||Monthly Budget Statement (JUL)||-$165.0B||-$180.7B|
|WED||22:30||NZD||Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index||56.2|
|WED||01:30||AUD||Employment Change (JUL)||20.0K||45.9K|
|WED||01:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (JUL)||5.1%|
|THU||04:30||JPY||Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN F)||-1.5%|
|THU||05:00||JPY||Consumer Confidence (JUL)||43.9||43.6|
|THU||05:00||JPY||Consumer Confidence Households (JUL)||43.9||43.5|
|THU||08:00||EUR||ECB Publishes Monthly Report (AUG)|
|THU||09:00||EUR||Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (JUN)||-1957|
|THU||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)||9.3%||9.4%|
|THU||22:00||NZD||REINZ Housing Price Index MoM% (JUL)||0.6%|
|THU||22:00||NZD||REINZ Housing Price Index (JUL)||3230.6|
|THU||22:45||NZD||Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN)||0.5%||0.4%|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUN)||-3.4B|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)||0.2%|
|FRI||09:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)||0.6%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)||0.9%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL)||1.1%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Advance Retail Sales (JUL)||-0.5%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Retail Sales Less Autos (JUL)||-0.1%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (JUL)||0.1%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG P)||67.8|
Starting with the economy of the week, China will be reporting it's major data points this week for July. The first batch will likely be the data from the PBOC which includes lending data (which by the way will likely be fairly static around 600B as the regulators crack down on excessive lending), and money supply data, then there's the trade data from the customs department, which is likely to be unchanged, but as always - I'm keeping a close eye on the export/import levels as a kind of proxy for international trade volumes and as a bit of a gauge for global activity - i.e. if there's another major slump it will show up in Chinese exports. Then there's the data from the National Bureau of Statistics; inflation is likely to pick up a bit, and industrial production will likely follow the course suggested by the PMI readings i.e. down; the rest will likely be fairly standard.
Now, onto the monetary policy reviews; Japan is likely to be fairly ho-hum, to be sure - likely not to see any changes in the i-rate for quite a while; the only thing to watch for would be any additional stimulus measures e.g. the lending program they previously announced. The US is likely to be a similar story, but the rumors are increasing... or more likely the speculation is increasing that the Fed may implement additional stimulus measures to cement the recovery and counter any possibility of a double-dip recession (which remains a real risk).
Keeping with the US, there's also the other consumer confidence indicators from there; the ABC index, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the trade balance (which is expected to stay around negative 42B), the consumer price index (which is likely to show inflation around 1%), the monthly budget statement, and of course retail sales on Friday. The data points will add to the picture for the US economy, which is looking increasingly mixed - albeit weighted to the downside.
Elsewhere in the world there's the second quarter GDP figures from the EU, which will attract considerable interest given the recent financial system and sovereign debt concerns raised around there. Aside from the US, the other economies reporting confidence are Japan; which is expected to rise slightly, and Australia, which will likely be about sideways as the election draws near. The Aussies have also got their employment numbers out this week, which are likely to show continued jobs growth; likely better than New Zealand's results - who is set to release July house price data on Thursday.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, and stay tuned for updates...
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