Can Trevor Lawrence Live Up To The Hype? The Case For And Against NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Candidates

After MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year is the most fun prop bet out there. Every year, there is always at least one breakout player who no one is expecting and at least one top player who disappoints tremendously. Just look at some of last year's rookies.

James Robinson was an undrafted player who managed to make his way to Jacksonville and then proceeded to go over 1,000 yards rushing. Or alternatively, Henry Ruggs, who despite being the first receiver off the board in a loaded class, failed to record even 500 yards receiving. The same trend holds true for quarterbacks.

Dak Prescott was taken in the fourth round in 2016 and wasn't expected to play his rookie year. With an injury to Tony Romo, Prescott not only played, but he was exceptional en route to winning Rookie of the Year. The following year, as the no. 2 overall pick and first quarterback off the board, Mitch Trubisky completely fell flat.

Rookie years don't determine the career trajectory of a player, but who is the best rookie sure is fun to bet on! Here is a breakdown of the five first-round quarterbacks taken in 2021 and their odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

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Trevor Lawrence, QB Jacksonville Jaguars (+300)

Argument For: Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect in the past decade. From the moment he stepped on the Clemson field, everyone knew he was going to be the no. 1 overall pick and it wasn't even close. With great arm strength, dead-eye accuracy and the ability to extend plays with his legs, Lawrence is an all-around talent with a top-three quarterback ceiling.

He will be playing with a nice supporting cast of skill position players, including D.J. Chark, Marvin Jones Jr. and second-year breakout candidate Laviska Shenaultas his wideouts. He will also be working with his college running back Travis Etienne and last year's rookie of the year finalist James Robinson in the backfield.

Lawrence has all the tools as both a player and a great supporting cast that makes him, deservedly so, the favorite to take home the award.

Argument Against: Lawrence is the most hyped-up prospect since Andrew Luck in 2012, and despite Luck breaking the rookie record for most passing yards in a season, he still lost out on Rookie of the Year to another QB. The same exact thing could happen to Lawrence.

The expectations for Lawrence are so high that he will not be judged based on rookie standards, he will be scored on a veteran scale because he is just that good, or at least that is what he is seen as.

Unless Lawrence puts on a great season compared to not just rookies, but anyone, he will not win if another rookie can put up even semi-comparable numbers.

Trey Lance, QB San Francisco 49ers (+600)

Argument For: Hailing from North Dakota State, Trey Lance has arguably the most upside of any quarterback taken in this past draft. Loaded with a cannon of an arm and surprising mobility, offensive guru Kyle Shannahan should have a lot of fun with Lance. He has lots of weapons at his disposal, including top three tight end George Kittle and young stud receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.

Jimmy Garoppolo has already been announced as the starter, but if he gets injured like he has the past three seasons, Lance should be ready to step under center and lead a talented San Francisco team to wins and claim Rookie of the Year.

Argument Against: Trey Lance will only play partially this season, if at all. If Garoppolo stays healthy and leads the Niners to wins, Shannahan will have no reason to play Lance. Lance also does not have a lot of experience, only playing one season of college football against weak competition at an FCS school.

San Francisco is a notorious run-first team, so Shannahan's play-calling might limit Lance's opportunities to air it out. If Lance can find a way to get playing time and make the most of it, he has a good chance to win, but the keyword is if.

Justin Fields, QB Chicago Bears (+600)

Argument For: Despite being the fourth quarterback taken in the draft, there's an easy argument to be made that he deserved to be the first. Following the trend of having both arm and leg talent, Fields was very successful in college and the Bears drafted him with the hope he can finally solve their quarterback problem.

Fields will be playing with top ten receiver Allen Robinson as his receiver one. Fields has the natural ability to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, provided he can earn playing time.

Argument Against: Chicago signed Andy Dalton this offseason and committed to him being the starter. This was before they drafted Fields, but it stands to reason that Dalton will be under the gun come week one, meaning that Fields won't have a full season of playing time, if any.

He played college ball at Ohio State, a program that notoriously fails to produce quarterbacks that can play in the big leagues. Fields has a lot going against him, but if he can overcome the odds, he should be able to string together a good case for Rookie of the Year.

Zach Wilson, QB New York Jets (+700)

Argument For: In most other drafts, Zach Wilson would have been the no. 1 overall pick. Unfortunately, he was in a draft class with Lawrence, but that does not limit Wilson's potential. He has the upside of Patrick Mahomes with his incredible ability to keep a play alive and deliver a spectacular throw to his receivers.

Wilson will be playing behind an offensive line that includes two first-round picks in the past two drafts: Mekhi Becton and Alijah Vera-Tucker. The Jets also signed former top-five pick Corey Davis and drafted slot specialist Elijah Moore in the second round to be Wilson's wideouts. Wilson should also be able to gain lots of garbage time stats as the Jets aren't expected to be a competitive team.

If Wilson can defy expectations and lead the Jets to some wins while producing at a high level, there's no reason why he can't run away with the trophy.

Argument Against: Because he's on the New York Jets. As harsh as that sounds, it's undeniably true. The Jets are a franchise that disappoints time and time again. Wilson was drafted to turn that around, but it is way too soon for the Jets to have any chance at competing with their dismal roster.

No matter how good Wilson's stats may be, best case scenario the Jets are only winning five games and no quarterback will win any award if they cannot lead their team to at least .500. Zach Wilson is incredibly talented, but all we can do is hope the Jets don't waste him like they do every player.

Mac Jones, QB New England Patriots (+1200)

Argument For: No player saw their draft stock rise more than Mac Jones in the 2020 college football season. Leading a dominant Alabama team to the National Championship, Mac Jones was projected to be drafted as high as no. 3. The Patriots lucked out as they saw Jones fall in their lap at pick 15.

Jones couldn't be in a better situation as he gets to be coached by one of the greats, Bill Belichick. Belichick also coached up another non-mobile quarterback who went on to have a pretty successful career. He gets to play behind a top-three offensive line in New England. Mac Jones makes up for an average arm with great non-tangible skills such as his leadership.

Jones should be the signal-caller for years to come with a Patriots team already hungry for another Super Bowl.

Argument Against: Similar to most of the quarterbacks already listed, Mac Jones may not even play this season with former MVP Cam Newton ahead of him on the depth chart. Jones is accurate with his throws, but his inability to stretch the field and keep the play alive will hinder his upside. New England also does not have the best weapons in the world, despite signing two talented tight ends.

Jones will have his work cut out for him to get the start this season and be able to compete in a league where quarterbacks are significantly more mobile than they used to be. All of these question marks cause doubt in Mac Jones' ability to win Rookie of the Year.

Photo credit: TigerNet, Flickr