Christie's Presidential Decision May Seal Obama's Fate

As third quarter FEC fundraising reports begin being leaked to the public, and campaigns celebrate fundraising accomplishments, there is a more important announcement the Obama political machine is worried about... New Jersey Governor Chris Christie's hour long press conference stating for seemingly the millionth time that he is not running for president in 2012. While on the surface this may seem like a blessing, the Republican is a no nonsense charismatic voice of conservatism, as is so often the case in politics, the devil is in the details. Christie would have been an incredibly formidable general election opponent for the incumbent president, but his presence in the crowded Republican primary would clear a path to the nomination for Texas Governor Rick Perry. While Perry is a favorite among Texans and select conservative constituencies, his lack of support from the intellectual Republican base and his rugged “cowboy” persona, makes the governor a much tougher sell to the general electorate. As much of the Republican intelligentsia clamored for Christie to get in the race, after being turned down by Budget Chairman Paul Ryan and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, there was reluctance of support by the savvier establishment-types. This select group, many of which are partial to the idea of a Christie Administration in theory, foresaw what the vocal individuals within the intelligentsia chose to ignore... Christie very well could splinter the mainstream Republican vote, between he and Mitt Romney, allowing for Perry to be the GOP nominee, giving President Obama a second term on a silver platter. The primary calendar, still marginally in flux, would not have favored Perry in a race against a single one of the center-right Republican governors, but if both Christie and Romney were in, Perry becomes very competitive in primary states he otherwise would not be. South Carolina is more of Perry's natural constituency, but states like New Hampshire and Florida, two early primary states that Perry is not expected to run well in, become well within his scope to gain a plurality. With Christie's absence now a certainty, Romney appears to be a major favorite in three of the first five primaries or caucuses, and very competitive in the remaining two. The former Massachusetts governor is the only Republican candidate that has consistently polled even with, or ahead of Obama. Whether Plouffe, Axelrod and company would like to admit it or not, baring any unforeseen rapid economic recovery, the President enters a race against Romney as an early underdog. There is a long time between October 2011 and November 2012, but with unemployment stagnant above 9% and United States debt continuing to grow at record levels, including a trillion dollar fiscal year 2012 deficit, the grass is certifiably greener on Governor Romney's side of the fence.