Market Overview

Will Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul Boost Your Portfolio Tonight?


The B-List Republican 2012 nomination circus continues tonight, as the Presidential contenders gather to debate on CNN at 8 p.m. EST.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, businessman Herman Cain, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum will participate in tonight's debate on the campus of Saint Anselm College.

Oddly enough, the candidate most posed to actually defeat President Obama in 2012, former governor Gary Johnson of New Mexico, was not invited to the debate. Neither were two of the top GOP choices to run against Obama. Former VP pick Sarah Palin and Texas governor Rick Perry are the notable potential-candidates who were not invited, and each has a following and a path to the nomination that makes sense.

The key issue tonight almost certainly has to be the economy, making this a debate worth watching for the Benzinga community. While what is discussed won't be the official policy of the GOP, what the various contenders say will provide a roadmap for where the government policy debate might go in the next year or so.

Here are some key items to watch for tonight.

Jobs, jobs, jobs While the Republicans will want to hammer Obama on jobs in the fall, they may not want to play this card too early. It would be to their political advantage for Obama to focus on the debt, and then use the poor unemployment data closer to the election to win voters over. If there is a large focus on jobs tonight, this early in the campaign, you can almost guarantee that Obama and the Democrats will pick up on it and run with the issue.

The Dow has been healthy the last year, even with losses of late, but will not be able to thrive for much longer with 9-10% unemployment.

Debt! The GOP field is filled with budget cutters, tax cutters, and anti-spending businessmen. It's entirely possible they could spend the entire two hours on the federal debt limit, the federal deficit, and each of their plans for getting us out of this mess. Ron Paul will beat this drum heavily from the Libertarian angle, and Pawlenty will almost certainly focus on his supply-side economic plan he unveiled this week.

Bond markets, the dollar, forex traders, and anyone with an investment anywhere in the economy will be paying close attention to the GOP plans for the debt.

Health Care While this is typically a “democrat” issue, Republicans will want to weaken Romney's early lead in the polls by attacking him on health care. Already, some have taken to referring to Obama's plan as “Obamney-care”, seeking to tie Romney's health care initiative in the 1990s to Obama's plan.

We might even see some market-based approaches emerge, any of which might move markets in the health care sector.

Posted-In: Barack Obama Gary JohnsonNews Politics Forex Media Trading Ideas General


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