- Mizuho initiated coverage on Ocugen Inc OCGN with a Buy rating and a price target of $5, reflecting an upside of almost 115%.
- Mizuho views Ocugen as a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
- While the lead asset, a COVID-19 vaccine (Covaxin), offers potential near-term cash flow to help offset operational costs, Mizuho believes OCU400, a Phase 1/2 gene therapy for eye disease, is a more significant value driver for the company.
- According to the analyst, the current stock price primarily reflects the value of Covaxin.
- Related: Ocugen's Partner COVID-19 Vaccine Covaxin Shows Encouraging Action In Children Below 18 Years.
- "If approved, we believe COVAXIN could be attractive to individuals in the US seeking a broad antibody response against multiple antigens or waiting for a traditionally made COVID-19 vaccine due to their discomfort with mRNA vaccines," Mizuho writes.
- The stock price incorporates little to no value for OCU400, setting up a favorable risk/reward going into the first human efficacy data readout for OCU400 in 1H23.
- The analyst models a 20% probability of success sales of $455 million ($2.3 billion unadjusted) in 2030 for five key inherited retinal diseases (with cumulative sales of $3.3 billion ($16.3 billion unadjusted) for 2026-2035E).
- Price Action: OCGN shares are up 3.85% at $2.43 during the premarket session on the last check Tuesday.
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